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In Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Rank Reversals are a serious problem that can greatly affect the results of a Multi-Criteria Decision Method against a particular set of alternatives. It is therefore useful to have a mechanism that…

Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-15 Harit Vishwakarma , Alan Mishler , Thomas Cook , Niccolò Dalmasso , Natraj Raman , Sumitra Ganesh

In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-06 Nicolas Dewolf

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2023-07-06 Jian Zhu , Congcong Liu , Pei Wang , Xiwei Zhao , Zhangang Lin , Jingping Shao

In this paper, we consider the problem of simultaneously testing many two-sided hypotheses when rejections of null hypotheses are accompanied by claims of the direction of the alternative. The fundamental goal is to construct methods that…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-03-21 Anjana Grandhi , Wenge Guo , Joseph P. Romano

Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) has proven effective for efficient LLM evaluation on multiple-choice benchmarks, but modern LLM evaluation increasingly relies on generation tasks where outputs are scored continuously rather than marked…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-01-21 Esma Balkır , Alice Pernthaller , Marco Basaldella , José Hernández-Orallo , Nigel Collier

Standardization has been a widely adopted practice in multiple testing, for it takes into account the variability in sampling and makes the test statistics comparable across different study units. However, despite conventional wisdom to the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-09 Luella Fu , Bowen Gang , Gareth M. James , Wenguang Sun

When comparing multiple groups in clinical trials, we are not only interested in whether there is a difference between any groups but rather the location. Such research questions lead to testing multiple individual hypotheses. To control…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-08 Ina Dormuth , Carolin Herrmann , Frank Konietschke , Markus Pauly , Matthias Wirth , Marc Ditzhaus

In ill-posed imaging inverse problems, uncertainty quantification remains a fundamental challenge, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, conformal prediction has been used to quantify the uncertainty that the inverse problem…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-11-25 Jeffrey Wen , Rizwan Ahmad , Philip Schniter

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

We develop a novel approach to conformal prediction when the target task has limited data available for training. Conformal prediction identifies a small set of promising output candidates in place of a single prediction, with guarantees…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-21 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Matching is one of the simplest approaches for estimating causal effects from observational data. Matching techniques compare the observed outcomes across pairs of individuals with similar covariate values but different treatment statuses…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-09-23 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

Hyperparameter selection is a critical step in the deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) models, particularly in the current era of foundational, pre-trained, models. By framing hyperparameter selection as a multiple hypothesis testing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-07 Amirmohammad Farzaneh , Osvaldo Simeone

Meta reinforcement learning sets a distribution over a set of tasks on which the agent can train at will, then is asked to learn an optimal policy for any test task efficiently. In this paper, we consider a finite set of tasks modeled…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-05 Mirco Mutti , Aviv Tamar

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-07 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

In this work, we proposed a novel inferential procedure assisted by machine learning based adjustment for randomized control trials. The method was developed under the Rosenbaum's framework of exact tests in randomized experiments with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-23 Han Yu , Alan D. Hutson , Xiaoyi Ma

In a split conformal framework with $K$ classes, a calibration sample of $n$ labeled examples is observed for inference on the label of a new unlabeled example. We explore the setting where a `batch' of $m$ independent such unlabeled…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-19 Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Etienne Roquain , Aldo Solari

Deep learning based cervical cancer classification can potentially increase access to screening in low-resource regions. However, deep learning models are often overconfident and do not reliably reflect diagnostic uncertainty. Moreover,…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-05-15 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Antti Suutala , Dmitrii Bychkov , Hakan Kücükel , Joar von Bahr , Milda Poceviciute , Johan Lundin , Nina Linder , Claes Lundström

Heteroskedasticity poses several methodological challenges in designing valid and powerful procedures for simultaneous testing of composite null hypotheses. In particular, the conventional practice of standardizing or re-scaling…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-04 Bowen Gang , Trambak Banerjee