相关论文: Direct Amortized Likelihood Ratio Estimation

Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers fast, scalable approximations to posterior densities by training neural surrogates on data simulated from the statistical model. However, ABI methods are highly sensitive to model misspecification:…

We present algorithms (a) for nested neural likelihood-to-evidence ratio estimation, and (b) for simulation reuse via an inhomogeneous Poisson point process cache of parameters and corresponding simulations. Together, these algorithms…

We consider Metropolis Hastings MCMC in cases where the log of the ratio of target distributions is replaced by an estimator. The estimator is based on m samples from an independent online Monte Carlo simulation. Under some conditions on…

Making inferences about physical properties of the Universe requires knowledge of the data likelihood. A Gaussian distribution is commonly assumed for the uncertainties with a covariance matrix estimated from a set of simulations. The noise…

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or…

Traditional Relative Efficiency (RE), based solely on variance, has limitations in evaluating estimator performance, particularly in planned missing data designs. We introduce Bhirkuti's Relative Efficiency (BRE), a novel metric that…

We consider the problem of parametric statistical inference when likelihood computations are prohibitively expensive but sampling from the model is possible. Several so-called likelihood-free methods have been developed to perform inference…

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

We introduce Sequential Neural Posterior Score Estimation (SNPSE), a score-based method for Bayesian inference in simulator-based models. Our method, inspired by the remarkable success of score-based methods in generative modelling,…

Many estimators of dynamic discrete choice models with persistent unobserved heterogeneity have desirable statistical properties but are computationally intensive. In this paper we propose a method to quicken estimation for a broad class of…

Bayesian inference has been broadly applied to statistical network analysis, but suffers from the expensive computational costs due to the nature of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. This paper proposes a novel and…

In Bayesian inference prior hyperparameters are chosen subjectively or estimated using empirical Bayes methods. Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI) also has a learning rate hyperparameter. This is compounded in Semi-Modular Inference…

Quantifying the difference between two probability density functions, $p$ and $q$, using available data, is a fundamental problem in Statistics and Machine Learning. A usual approach for addressing this problem is the likelihood-ratio…

Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) approaches allow to obtain posterior distributions for stochastic models with intractable likelihood, by relying on model simulations. In Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), a popular LFI method,…

Unbinned likelihood fits aim at maximizing the information one can extract from experimental data, yet their application in realistic statistical analyses is often hindered by the computational cost of profiling systematic uncertainties.…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating statistics to infer parameters of intractable likelihood models.…

Computing ratios of normalizing constants plays an important role in statistical modeling. Two important examples are hypothesis testing in latent variables models, and model comparison in Bayesian statistics. In both examples, the…

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

When the likelihood is analytically unavailable and computationally intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has emerged as a widely used methodology for approximate posterior inference; however, it suffers from severe…