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We enhance the accuracy and generalization of univariate time series point prediction by an explainable ensemble on the fly. We propose an Interpretable Dynamic Ensemble Architecture (IDEA), in which interpretable base learners give…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-17 Mengyue Zha , Kani Chen , Tong Zhang

Developments in Deep Learning have significantly improved time series forecasting by enabling more accurate modeling of complex temporal dependencies inherent in sequential data. The effectiveness of such models is often demonstrated on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-19 Victoria Hankemeier , Malte Schilling

Research on long-term time series prediction has primarily relied on Transformer and MLP models, while the potential of convolutional networks in this domain remains underexplored. To address this, we propose a novel multi-scale time series…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-03 Chenghan Li , Mingchen Li , Yipu Liao , Ruisheng Diao

Time series forecasting (TSF) has long been a crucial task in both industry and daily life. Most classical statistical models may have certain limitations when applied to practical scenarios in fields such as energy, healthcare, traffic,…

This paper presents \textbf{FreEformer}, a simple yet effective model that leverages a \textbf{Fre}quency \textbf{E}nhanced Trans\textbf{former} for multivariate time series forecasting. Our work is based on the assumption that the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-27 Wenzhen Yue , Yong Liu , Xianghua Ying , Bowei Xing , Ruohao Guo , Ji Shi

Accurate prediction of blast pressure fields is essential for applications in structural safety, defense planning, and hazard mitigation. Traditional methods such as empirical models and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations offer…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-28 Reid Graves , Anthony Zhou , Amir Barati Farimani

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-25 Jihua Huang , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-10 Qingxiang Liu , Xu Liu , Chenghao Liu , Qingsong Wen , Yuxuan Liang

Transformer-based models have gained large popularity and demonstrated promising results in long-term time-series forecasting in recent years. In addition to learning attention in time domain, recent works also explore learning attention in…

The recent development of foundation models for time series data has generated considerable interest in using such models across a variety of applications. Although foundation models achieve state-of-the-art predictive performance, their…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-29 Coen Adler , Yuxin Chang , Felix Draxler , Samar Abdi , Padhraic Smyth

Predicting multivariate time series is crucial, demanding precise modeling of intricate patterns, including inter-series dependencies and intra-series variations. Distinctive trend characteristics in each time series pose challenges, and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-08 Guoqi Yu , Jing Zou , Xiaowei Hu , Angelica I. Aviles-Rivero , Jing Qin , Shujun Wang

Non-stationary sequences arise naturally in control, forecasting, and decision-making. The data-generating process shifts at unknown times, and models must detect the change, discard or downweight obsolete evidence, and adapt to new…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-21 Carson Dudley , Yutong Bi , Xiaofeng Liu , Samet Oymak

Time series forecasting drives operational decisions in areas like finance, transportation, and energy. While supervised learning approaches achieve strong performance, they require domain-specific training, feature engineering, and ongoing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-26 Kavin Soni , Debanshu Das , Vamshi Guduguntla

Time-series forecasting is crucial for numerous real-world applications including weather prediction and financial market modeling. While temporal-domain methods remain prevalent, frequency-domain approaches can effectively capture…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-05 Zhixuan Li , Naipeng Chen , Seonghwa Choi , Sanghoon Lee , Weisi Lin

In multivariable time series (MTS) forecasting, existing state-of-the-art deep learning approaches tend to focus on autoregressive formulations and often overlook the potential of using exogenous variables in enhancing the prediction of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-03 Yuxuan Shu , Vasileios Lampos

Time series forecasting presents a significant challenge, particularly when its accuracy relies on external data sources rather than solely on historical values. This issue is prevalent in the financial sector, where the future behavior of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-22 Hajar Emami , Xuan-Hong Dang , Yousaf Shah , Petros Zerfos

Time series forecasting is essential across domains from finance to supply chain management. This paper introduces ForecastGAN, a novel decomposition based adversarial framework addressing limitations in existing approaches for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-07 Syeda Sitara Wishal Fatima , Afshin Rahimi

Time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to the complex temporal dependencies at multiple time scales. This paper introduces ScatterFusion, a novel framework that synergistically integrates scattering transforms with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-29 Wei Li

Time-series forecasts are essential for planning and decision-making in many domains. Explainability is key to building user trust and meeting transparency requirements. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) is a popular explainable AI…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-24 Matthias Hertel , Sebastian Pütz , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer , Benjamin Schäfer

Despite the high performance of neural network-based time series forecasting methods, the inherent challenge in explaining their predictions has limited their applicability in certain application areas. Due to the difficulty in identifying…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-09 Ozan Ozyegen , Juyoung Wang , Mucahit Cevik