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Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operation. Yet, it remains largely a dataset-specific task, requiring comprehensive training data,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-27 Marco Obermeier , Marco Pruckner , Florian Haselbeck , Andreas Zeiselmair

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-15 Yong Liu , Tengge Hu , Haoran Zhang , Haixu Wu , Shiyu Wang , Lintao Ma , Mingsheng Long

Recent studies have shown that by introducing prior knowledge, multi-scale analysis of complex and non-stationary time series in real environments can achieve good results in the field of long-term forecasting. However, affected by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-26 Bin Wang , Heming Yang , Jinfang Sheng

The Transformer model has shown leading performance in time series forecasting. Nevertheless, in some complex scenarios, it tends to learn low-frequency features in the data and overlook high-frequency features, showing a frequency bias.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-04 Xihao Piao , Zheng Chen , Taichi Murayama , Yasuko Matsubara , Yasushi Sakurai

In recent years, numerous Transformer-based models have been applied to long-term time-series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. However, recent studies with linear models have questioned their effectiveness, demonstrating that simple linear layers…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-20 Jiaheng Yin , Zhengxin Shi , Jianshen Zhang , Xiaomin Lin , Yulin Huang , Yongzhi Qi , Wei Qi

Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-03-07 Matteo Maggiolo , Gerasimos Spanakis

A robust awareness of how dynamic scenes evolve is essential for Autonomous Driving systems, as they must accurately detect, track, and predict the behaviour of surrounding obstacles. Traditional perception pipelines that rely on modular…

Time series data are ubiquitous across diverse real-world applications, making time series analysis critically important. Traditional approaches are largely task-specific, offering limited functionality and poor transferability. In recent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-18 Jiexia Ye , Yongzi Yu , Weiqi Zhang , Le Wang , Jia Li , Fugee Tsung

Modeling continuous-time dynamics on irregular time series is critical to account for data evolution and correlations that occur continuously. Traditional methods including recurrent neural networks or Transformer models leverage inductive…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-19 Yuqi Chen , Kan Ren , Yansen Wang , Yuchen Fang , Weiwei Sun , Dongsheng Li

We present a conformal prediction method for time series using the Transformer architecture to capture long-memory and long-range dependencies. Specifically, we use the Transformer decoder as a conditional quantile estimator to predict the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-11 Junghwan Lee , Chen Xu , Yao Xie

Time series data is ubiquitous in research as well as in a wide variety of industrial applications. Effectively analyzing the available historical data and providing insights into the far future allows us to make effective decisions. Recent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-24 Kiran Madhusudhanan , Johannes Burchert , Nghia Duong-Trung , Stefan Born , Lars Schmidt-Thieme

We reveal that transformers trained in an autoregressive manner naturally encode time-delayed causal structures in their learned representations. When predicting future values in multivariate time series, the gradient sensitivities of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-12 Xinyue Wang , Stephen Wang , Biwei Huang

Tree-based models have been successfully applied to a wide variety of tasks, including time series forecasting. They are increasingly in demand and widely accepted because of their comparatively high level of interpretability. However, many…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-03 Matthias Jakobs , Amal Saadallah

Transformer-based architectures achieved breakthrough performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet they remain inferior to simpler linear baselines in multivariate long-term forecasting. To better understand this…

The emergence of deep learning has yielded noteworthy advancements in time series forecasting (TSF). Transformer architectures, in particular, have witnessed broad utilization and adoption in TSF tasks. Transformers have proven to be the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-01 Liyilei Su , Xumin Zuo , Rui Li , Xin Wang , Heng Zhao , Bingding Huang

In multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), accurately modeling the intricate dependencies among multiple variables remains a significant challenge due to the inherent limitations of traditional approaches. Most existing models adopt…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-19 Yuchen Luo , Xinyu Li , Liuhua Peng , Mingming Gong

Deep learning has shown impressive results in a variety of time series forecasting tasks, where modeling the conditional distribution of the future given the past is the essence. However, when this conditional distribution is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-27 Siqi Liu , Andreas Lehrmann

A variety of real-world applications rely on far future information to make decisions, thus calling for efficient and accurate long sequence multivariate time series forecasting. While recent attention-based forecasting models show strong…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-02 Razvan-Gabriel Cirstea , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang , Tung Kieu , Xuanyi Dong , Shirui Pan

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in domains such as energy, finance, and healthcare, where accurate predictions inform decision-making under uncertainty. Although Transformer-based models have demonstrated success in sequential…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-27 Ali Forootani , Mohammad Khosravi

Traditional time series models are task-specific and often depend on dataset-specific training and extensive feature engineering. While Transformer-based architectures have improved scalability, foundation models, commonplace in text,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-21 Utsav Dutta , Sina Khoshfetrat Pakazad , Henrik Ohlsson