相关论文: Performative Prediction: Past and Future

Time series prediction is a widespread and well studied problem with applications in many domains (medical, geoscience, network analysis, finance, econometry etc.). In the case of multivariate time series, the key to good performances is to…

This paper studies the performative policy learning problem, where agents adjust their features in response to a released policy to improve their potential outcomes, inducing an endogenous distribution shift. There has been growing interest…

Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they also function as coordination mechanisms: public…

Without the ability to estimate and benchmark AI capability advancements, organizations are left to respond to each change reactively, impeding their ability to build viable mid and long-term strategies. This paper explores the recent…

This article proposes predictive economics as a distinct analytical perspective within economics, grounded in machine learning and centred on predictive accuracy rather than causal identification. Drawing on the instrumentalist tradition…

When predicting a target variable $Y$ from features $X$, the prediction $\hat{Y}$ can be performative: an agent might act on this prediction, affecting the value of $Y$ that we eventually observe. Performative predictions are deliberately…

Trajectory prediction plays a vital role in the performance of autonomous driving systems, and prediction accuracy, such as average displacement error (ADE) or final displacement error (FDE), is widely used as a performance metric. However,…

Imitation learning is a data-driven approach to acquiring skills that relies on expert demonstrations to learn a policy that maps observations to actions. When performing demonstrations, experts are not always consistent and might…

We study discrete-time predictable forward processes when trading times do not coincide with performance evaluation times in a binomial tree model for the financial market. The key step in the construction of these processes is to solve a…

Non-Equilibrium Social Science (NESS) emphasizes dynamical phenomena, for instance the way political movements emerge or competing organizations interact. This paper argues that predictive analysis is an essential element of NESS, occupying…

Flow matching has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling and has been extended to probabilistic time series forecasting in latent spaces. However, the impact of the specific choice of probability path model on…

We consider a federated learning (FL) system consisting of multiple clients and a server, where the clients aim to collaboratively learn a common decision model from their distributed data. Unlike the conventional FL framework that assumes…

With increasing competition and pace in the financial markets, robust forecasting methods are becoming more and more valuable to investors. While machine learning algorithms offer a proven way of modeling non-linearities in time series,…

Social contexts -- such as families, schools, and neighborhoods -- shape life outcomes. The key question is not simply whether they matter, but rather for whom and under what conditions. Here, we argue that prediction gaps -- differences in…

Multimodal representation learning is fundamentally about transforming incomparable modalities into comparable representations. While prior research primarily focused on explicitly aligning these representations through targeted learning…

Machine learning is the science of discovering statistical dependencies in data, and the use of those dependencies to perform predictions. During the last decade, machine learning has made spectacular progress, surpassing human performance…

Proper scoring rules incentivize experts to accurately report beliefs, assuming predictions cannot influence outcomes. We relax this assumption and investigate incentives when predictions are performative, i.e., when they can influence the…

As input data distributions evolve, the predictive performance of machine learning models tends to deteriorate. In the past, predictive performance was considered the key indicator to monitor. However, explanation aspects have come to…

The concepts of Bayesian prediction, model comparison, and model selection have developed significantly over the last decade. As a result, the Bayesian community has witnessed a rapid growth in theoretical and applied contributions to…

The information diffusion prediction on social networks aims to predict future recipients of a message, with practical applications in marketing and social media. While different prediction models all claim to perform well, general…