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Due to their flexibility and superior performance, machine learning models frequently complement and outperform traditional statistical survival models. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by a lack of user-friendly tools to…

In solving real-world problems like changing healthcare-seeking behaviors, designing interventions to improve downstream outcomes requires an understanding of the causal links within the system. Causal Bayesian Networks (BN) have been…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-02-18 Bradley Butcher , Vincent S. Huang , Jeremy Reffin , Sema K. Sgaier , Grace Charles , Novi Quadrianto

Learning causality from observational data has received increasing interest across various scientific fields. However, most existing methods assume the absence of latent confounders and restrict the underlying causal graph to be acyclic,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-18 Wei Jin , Lang Lang , Amanda B. Spence , Leah H. Rubin , Yanxun Xu

Scientists regularly pose questions about treatment effects on outcomes conditional on a post-treatment event. However, causal inference in such settings requires care, even in perfectly executed randomized experiments. Recently, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-19 Chan Park , Mats Stensrud , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-10-31 Dustin Tran , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Susan Athey , David M. Blei

Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical settings and policy-making. Beyond the gold-standard…

Survival analysis predicts the time until an event of interest, such as failure or death, but faces challenges due to censored data, where some events remain unobserved. Ensemble-based models, like random survival forests and gradient…

The estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in the potential outcome setting is biased when there exists model misspecification or unobserved confounding. As these biases are unobservable, what model to use when remains a critical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-09 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Edoardo M. Airoldi

Two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event have been recently introduced based on frequentist estimation. The biomarker distribution is decomposed into a probability of positive value and the…

A further understanding of cause and effect within observational data is critical across many domains, such as economics, health care, public policy, web mining, online advertising, and marketing campaigns. Although significant advances…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-11 Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li

Parametric assumptions such as exponential distribution are commonly used in clinical trial design and analysis. However, violation of distribution assumptions can introduce biases in sample size and power calculations. Piecewise…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-14 Tianchen Xu , Rachael Wen , Wen Zhang

Causal Inference offers a fundamental approach for advancing empirical software engineering (ESE) beyond traditional statistical association, enabling researchers to rigorously identify and quantify causal relationships in software…

In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2018-03-23 Vikas Ramachandra

In addition to efficient statistical estimators of a treatment's effect, successful application of causal inference requires specifying assumptions about the mechanisms underlying observed data and testing whether they are valid, and to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-10 Amit Sharma , Emre Kiciman

Causal discovery and inference from observational data is an essential problem in statistics posing both modeling and computational challenges. These are typically addressed by imposing strict assumptions on the joint distribution such as…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-20 Enrico Giudice , Jack Kuipers , Giusi Moffa

Estimation of causal effects is the core objective of many scientific disciplines. However, it remains a challenging task, especially when the effects are estimated from observational data. Recently, several promising machine learning…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-09-02 Niki Kiriakidou , Christos Diou

Despite the major advances taken in causal modeling, causality is still an unfamiliar topic for many statisticians. In this paper, it is demonstrated from the beginning to the end how causal effects can be estimated from observational data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-07-03 Juha Karvanen

For non-randomized studies, the regression discontinuity design (RDD) can be used to identify and estimate causal effects from a "locally-randomized" subgroup of subjects, under relatively mild conditions. However, current models focus…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-02-12 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

Causal inference, especially in observational studies, relies on untestable assumptions about the true data-generating process. Sensitivity analysis helps us determine how robust our conclusions are when we alter these underlying…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Nikita Dhawan , Daniel Shen , Leonardo Cotta , Chris J. Maddison

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk