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Models for learning probability distributions such as generative models and density estimators behave quite differently from models for learning functions. One example is found in the memorization phenomenon, namely the ultimate convergence…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-03-03 Hongkang Yang , Weinan E

In this work, we investigate causal learning of independent causal mechanisms from a Bayesian perspective. Confirming previous claims from the literature, we show in a didactically accessible manner that unlabeled data (i.e., cause…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-03 Bernhard C. Geiger , Roman Kern

We present a general approach to deriving bounds on the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms. Our approach can be used to obtain bounds on the average generalization error as well as bounds on its tail probabilities, both…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2020-09-10 Fredrik Hellström , Giuseppe Durisi

Based on expert opinions, informative prior elicitation for the common Weibull lifetime distribution usually presents some difficulties since it requires to elicit a two-dimensional joint prior. We consider here a reliability framework…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2010-10-22 Nicolas Bousquet

Estimating the difference between two binomial proportions will be investigated, where Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) methods will be considered. Three vague priors will be used, the Jeffreys prior, a divergence prior and the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-11-17 Lizanne Raubenheimer

Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-02 R. Noah Padgett , Grant B. Morgan , Tim Lomas

In this work, we develop an objective Bayesian framework for the Dhillon probability distribution. We explicitly derive three objective priors: the Jeffreys prior, the overall reference prior, and the maximal data information prior. We show…

A staple of Bayesian model comparison and hypothesis testing, Bayes factors are often used to quantify the relative predictive performance of two rival hypotheses. The computation of Bayes factors can be challenging, however, and this has…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-19 František Bartoš , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Fairness in machine learning remains challenging due to its ethical complexity, the absence of a universal definition, and the need for context-specific bias metrics. Existing methods still struggle with intersectionality, multiclass…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-01 Jeanne Monnier , Thomas George , Frédéric Guyard , Christèle Tarnec , Marios Kountouris

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, not the prior, or Bayes rule. Bayesian inference is especially compelling for deep neural networks. (1) Neural networks are typically…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-01-30 Andrew Gordon Wilson

We derive a general upper bound to mutual information in terms of the Fisher information. The bound may be further used to derive a lower bound for the Bayesian quadratic cost. These two provide alternatives to other inequalities in the…

量子物理 · 物理学 2025-05-16 Wojciech Górecki , Xi Lu , Chiara Macchiavello , Lorenzo Maccone

Mutual information is a general statistical dependency measure which has found applications in representation learning, causality, domain generalization and computational biology. However, mutual information estimators are typically…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-10-17 Paweł Czyż , Frederic Grabowski , Julia E. Vogt , Niko Beerenwinkel , Alexander Marx

Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2008-02-03 O. -A. Al-Hujaj , H. L. Harney

By discussing several examples, the theory of generalized functional models is shown to be very natural for modeling some situations of reasoning under uncertainty. A generalized functional model is a pair (f, P) where f is a function…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-02-08 Paul-Andre Monney

We propose a way to construct fiducial distributions for a multidimensional parameter using a step-by-step conditional procedure related to the inferential importance of the components of the parameter. For discrete models, in which the…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-12-07 Piero Veronese , Eugenio Melilli

The ongoing unprecedented exponential explosion of available computing power, has radically transformed the methods of statistical inference. What used to be a small minority of statisticians advocating for the use of priors and a strict…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2009-11-07 Carlos C. Rodriguez

We introduce a general IFS Bayesian method for getting posterior probabilities from prior probabilities, and also a generalized Bayes' rule, which will contemplate a dynamical, as well as a non-dynamical setting. Given a loss function…

动力系统 · 数学 2023-09-08 Artur O. Lopes , Jairo. K. Mengue

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2008-12-02 Federico Bassetti

Bayesian inference provides a principled probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty by updating beliefs based on prior knowledge and observed data through Bayes' theorem. In Bayesian deep learning, neural network weights are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-22 Yijie Zhang

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens