相关论文: Generative ensemble deep learning severe weather p…

Ensemble forecasting has proven over the years to be a vital tool for predicting extreme or only partially predictable weather events. In particular life-threatening weather events. Many National Meteorological Services in East Africa do…

Wind power forecasting helps with the planning for the power systems by contributing to having a higher level of certainty in decision-making. Due to the randomness inherent to meteorological events (e.g., wind speeds), making highly…

In this work, we leverage ensemble learning as a tool for the creation of faster, smaller, and more accurate deep learning models. We demonstrate that we can jointly optimize for accuracy, inference time, and the number of parameters by…

Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. The recently released suite of AI-based weather models produces medium-range forecasts within seconds, with a skill…

Conventional predictive Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) commonly employ deterministic weight matrices; therefore, their prediction is a point estimate. Such a deterministic nature in ANNs causes the limitations of using ANNs for medical…

Deep learning-based surrogate models offer a computationally efficient alternative to high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for predicting urban wind flow. However, conventional approaches usually only yield…

Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is crucial for hydrometeorological risk management and disaster mitigation, yet remains challenging for current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Traditional ensemble systems such as…

Deep-learning-based data-driven forecasting methods have produced impressive results for traffic forecasting. A major limitation of these methods, however, is that they provide forecasts without estimates of uncertainty, which are critical…

Historical observations of severe weather and simulated severe weather environments (i.e., features) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System v12 (GEFSv12) Reforecast Dataset (GEFS/R) are used in conjunction to train and test random forest…

Recently all major weather prediction centres provide forecast ensembles of different weather quantities which are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with various initial conditions and model…

Data-driven approaches for medium-range weather forecasting are recently shown extraordinarily promising for ensemble forecasting for their fast inference speed compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, but their…

Addressing the challenges of climate change requires accurate and high-resolution mapping of geospatial data, especially climate and weather variables. However, many existing geospatial datasets, such as the gridded outputs of the…

A generative diffusion model is used to produce probabilistic ensembles of precipitation intensity maps at the 1-hour 5-km resolution. The generation is conditioned on infrared and microwave radiometric measurements from the GOES and DMSP…

Sub-seasonal weather forecasts are becoming increasingly important for a range of socio-economic activities. However, the predictive ability of physical weather models is very limited on these time scales. We propose several post-processing…

Accurate production forecasts are essential to continue facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic day-ahead forecasts of wind power generation via…

Regression algorithms are regularly used for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products. In this context, satellite precipitation and topography data are the predictor variables, and gauged-measured precipitation data are…

Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have emerged claiming breakthroughs in skill. However, these have…

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for socioeconomic activities. While data-driven forecasting demonstrates superior predictive capabilities over traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with reduced computational demands, its…

Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather…

Conditional generative models map input variables to complex, high-dimensional distributions, enabling realistic sample generation in a diverse set of domains. A critical challenge with these models is the absence of calibrated uncertainty,…