相关论文: Uncertainty of short-term Wind Power Forecasts -- …

This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addressing both uncertainty sources, the method achieves…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…

Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would…

We study short-term prediction of wind speed and wind power (every 10 minutes up to 4 hours ahead). Accurate forecasts for these quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms' intermittent production on energy…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a…

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…

In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the…

New methods are proposed for adjusting probabilistic forecasts to ensure coherence with the aggregation constraints inherent in temporal hierarchies. The different approaches nested within this framework include methods that exploit…

Wind energy is becoming an increasingly crucial component of a sustainable grid, but its inherent variability and limited predictability present challenges for grid operators. The energy sector needs novel forecasting techniques that can…

This paper introduces a new approach to quantify the impact of forward propagated demand and weather uncertainty on power system planning and operation models. Recent studies indicate that such sampling uncertainty, originating from demand…

We present a regime-switching vector-autoregressive method for very-short-term wind speed forecasting at multiple locations with regimes based on large-scale meteorological phenomena. Statistical methods short-term wind forecasting…

Despite the increasing importance of forecasts of renewable energy, current planning studies only address a general estimate of the forecast quality to be expected and selected forecast horizons. However, these estimates allow only a…

Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather…

Wind power forecasting is essential to power system operation and electricity markets. As abundant data became available thanks to the deployment of measurement infrastructures and the democratization of meteorological modelling, extensive…

In the last decades wind power became the second largest energy source in the EU covering 16% of its electricity demand. However, due to its volatility, accurate short range wind power predictions are required for successful integration of…

In power system operation, characterizing the stochastic nature of wind power is an important albeit challenging issue. It is well known that distributions of wind power forecast errors often exhibit significant variability with respect to…

The volatile nature of wind power generation creates challenges in achieving secure power grid operations. It is, therefore, necessary to make accurate wind power prediction and its uncertainty quantification. Wind power forecasting usually…

Probabilistic wind power forecasting approaches have significantly advanced in recent decades. However, forecasters often assume data completeness and overlook the challenge of missing values resulting from sensor failures, network…

The growth of wind generation capacities in the past decades has shown that wind energy can contribute to the energy transition in many parts of the world. Being highly variable and complex to model, the quantification of the…

Two-stage ensemble-based forecasting methods have been studied extensively in the wind power forecasting field. However, deep learning-based wind power forecasting studies have not investigated two aspects. In the first stage, different…