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Adaptive designs dynamically update treatment probabilities using information accumulated during the experiment. Existing theory for causal inference from adaptive experiments primarily assumes the superpopulation framework with independent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-26 Xinran Li , Anqi Zhao

We consider the problem of non-parametric Conditional Independence testing (CI testing) for continuous random variables. Given i.i.d samples from the joint distribution $f(x,y,z)$ of continuous random vectors $X,Y$ and $Z,$ we determine…

We propose the conditional predictive impact (CPI), a consistent and unbiased estimator of the association between one or several features and a given outcome, conditional on a reduced feature set. Building on the knockoff framework of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-14 David S. Watson , Marvin N. Wright

Large Language Models (LLMs) have showcased their In-Context Learning (ICL) capabilities, enabling few-shot learning without the need for gradient updates. Despite its advantages, the effectiveness of ICL heavily depends on the choice of…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-06-19 Vinay M. S. , Minh-Hao Van , Xintao Wu

Estimating time-varying reproduction numbers from epidemic incidence data is a central task in infectious disease surveillance, yet it poses an inherently ill-posed inverse problem. Existing approaches often rely on strong structural…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-19 Lanlan Yu , Quan-Hui Liu , Haoyue Zheng , Xinfu Yang

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

Invariant prediction [Peters et al., 2016] analyzes feature/outcome data from multiple environments to identify invariant features - those with a stable predictive relationship to the outcome. Such features support generalization to new…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-07-10 Luhuan Wu , Mingzhang Yin , Yixin Wang , John P. Cunningham , David M. Blei

Causal discovery aims to recover causal structures generating the observational data. Despite its success in certain problems, in many real-world scenarios the observed variables are not the target variables of interest, but the imperfect…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-21 Haoyue Dai , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

Out-of-distribution generalization under distributional shifts remains a critical challenge for graph neural networks. Existing methods generally adopt the Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework, requiring costly environment…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-24 Yang Qiu , Yixiong Zou , Jun Wang , Wei Liu , Xiangyu Fu , Ruixuan Li

Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-25 Rui Xu , Yue Sun , Chao Chen , Parv Venkitasubramaniam , Sihong Xie

Current supervised learning can learn spurious correlation during the data-fitting process, imposing issues regarding interpretability, out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, and robustness. To avoid spurious correlation, we propose a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-04-29 Xinwei Sun , Botong Wu , Xiangyu Zheng , Chang Liu , Wei Chen , Tao Qin , Tie-yan Liu

The discovery of causal relationships from high-dimensional data is a major open problem in bioinformatics. Machine learning and feature attribution models have shown great promise in this context but lack causal interpretation. Here, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-26 Payam Dibaeinia , Saurabh Sinha

Estimating the average treatment causal effect in clustered data often involves dealing with unmeasured cluster-specific confounding variables. Such variables may be correlated with the measured unit covariates and outcome. When the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-08-07 Zhulin He

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

Causal discovery from i.i.d. observational data is known to be generally ill-posed. We demonstrate that if we have access to the distribution {induced} by a structural causal model, and additional data from (in the best case) \textit{only…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-15 Francesco Montagna

We present the Causal Gaussian Process Convolution Model (CGPCM), a doubly nonparametric model for causal, spectrally complex dynamical phenomena. The CGPCM is a generative model in which white noise is passed through a causal,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-02-23 Wessel Bruinsma , Richard E. Turner

Integrated Gradients (IG) is a commonly used feature attribution method for deep neural networks. While IG has many desirable properties, the method often produces spurious/noisy pixel attributions in regions that are not related to the…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2021-06-21 Andrei Kapishnikov , Subhashini Venugopalan , Besim Avci , Ben Wedin , Michael Terry , Tolga Bolukbasi

A central goal of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) is to separate modelling from inference. However, this goal is hard to achieve in practice. Users are often forced to re-write their models in order to improve efficiency of…

编程语言 · 计算机科学 2022-02-21 Maria I. Gorinova , Andrew D. Gordon , Charles Sutton , Matthijs Vákár

Current causal discovery approaches require restrictive model assumptions in the absence of interventional data to ensure structure identifiability. These assumptions often do not hold in real-world applications leading to a loss of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-25 Anish Dhir , Ruby Sedgwick , Avinash Kori , Ben Glocker , Mark van der Wilk

The mainstream of research in genetics, epigenetics and imaging data analysis focuses on statistical association or exploring statistical dependence between variables. Despite their significant progresses in genetic research, understanding…

基因组学 · 定量生物学 2018-05-14 Rong Jiao , Nan Lin , Zixin Hu , David A Bennett , Li Jin , Momiao Xiong