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Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-19 Yahav Cohen , Jacob Goldberger , Tom Tirer

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are…

计算机科学中的逻辑 · 计算机科学 2024-11-19 Linus Jeary , Tom Kuipers , Mehran Hosseini , Nicola Paoletti

The reliable deployment of deep learning in medical imaging requires uncertainty quantification that provides rigorous error guarantees while remaining anatomically meaningful. Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful distribution-free…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-01-28 Mélanie Gaillochet , Christian Desrosiers , Hervé Lombaert

Conformal Prediction (CP) quantifies network uncertainty by building a small prediction set with a pre-defined probability that the correct class is within this set. In this study we tackle the problem of CP calibration based on a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-22 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger

Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-09 Yuanjie Shi , Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Research on human-AI teams usually provides experts with a single label, which ignores the uncertainty in a model's recommendation. Conformal prediction (CP) is a well established line of research that focuses on building a theoretically…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-05-27 Varun Babbar , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true labels. This reliability makes CP valuable for high-stakes federated learning scenarios such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-21 Rui Xu , Xingyuan Chen , Wenxing Huang , Minxuan Huang , Yun Xie , Weiyan Chen , Sihong Xie

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-25 Xuesong Jia , Yuanjie Shi , Ziquan Liu , Yi Xu , Yan Yan

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye

Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework for high-stakes classification applications. Instead of predicting a single class, CP generates a prediction set, guaranteed to include the true label with a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-25 Ariel Fargion , Lahav Dabah , Tom Tirer

In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-29 Rohan Hore , Rina Foygel Barber

For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-09 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-14 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger , Ethan Fetaya

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-01 Ge Yan , Yaniv Romano , Tsui-Wei Weng

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi
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