相关论文: Adaptive Gaussian Markov Random Fields for Child M…

Extreme events with potential deadly outcomes, such as those organized by terror groups, are highly unpredictable in nature and an imminent threat to society. In particular, quantifying the likelihood of a terror attack occurring in an…

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, ethnic group and socioeconomic status. In making social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is important not…

Stochastic compartmental models are important tools for understanding the course of infectious diseases epidemics in populations and in prospective evaluation of intervention policies. However, calculating the likelihood for discretely…

We present statistical techniques for analyzing global positioning system (GPS) data in order to understand, communicate about, and prevent patterns of violence. In this pilot study, participants in Nairobi, Kenya were asked to rate their…

In this article we describe and apply the Fay-Herriot model with spatially correlated random area effects (Pratesi, M., & Salvati, N. (2008)), in order to predict the prevalence of anemia and childhood stunting in Peruvian districts, based…

Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this…

Bayesian methods for learning Gaussian graphical models offer a principled framework for quantifying model uncertainty and incorporating prior knowledge. However, their scalability is constrained by the computational cost of jointly…

Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are useful in a broad range of applications. In this paper we tackle the problem of learning a sparse GMRF in a high-dimensional space. Our approach uses the l1-norm as a regularization on the inverse…

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for guiding policy and identifying disparities. Many indicators of interest are proportions of binary outcomes and…

There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…

In this paper, we propose a new estimation procedure for discovering the structure of Gaussian Markov random fields (MRFs) with false discovery rate (FDR) control, making use of the sorted l1-norm (SL1) regularization. A Gaussian MRF is an…

Population size estimation from capture-recapture data is central for studying hard-to-reach populations, incorporating auxiliary covariates to account for heterogeneous capture probabilities and recapture dependencies. However, missing…

Inference for spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) for high-dimensional non-Gaussian spatial data is computationally intensive. The computational challenge is due to the high-dimensional random effects and because Markov chain…

Extreme precipitation events occurring over large spatial domains pose substantial threats to societies because they can trigger compound flooding, landslides, and infrastructure failures across wide areas. A hybrid framework for spatial…

In this paper, we consider the filtering and smoothing recursions in nonparametric finite state space hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the parameters of the model are unknown and replaced by estimators. We provide an explicit and time…

In this paper we attempt to answer the following question: ``Is it possible to obtain reliable estimates for the prevalence of anemia rates in children under five years in the districts of Peru?'' Specifically, the interest of the present…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

This paper presents an approach to incorporate mortality shocks into mortality projections produced by a stochastic multi-population mortality model. The proposed model combines a decreasing stochastic mortality trend with a…

Birth and death Markov processes can model stochastic physical systems from percolation to disease spread and, in particular, wildfires. We introduce and analyze a birth-death-suppression Markov process as a model of controlled culling of…

Spatiotemporal prediction plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications such as urban planning, transportation optimization, disaster response, and pandemic control. In recent years, researchers have made significant progress by…