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Lifted inference exploits symmetries in probabilistic graphical models by using a representative for indistinguishable objects, thereby speeding up query answering while maintaining exact answers. Even though lifting is a well-established…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-03-18 Malte Luttermann , Mattis Hartwig , Tanya Braun , Ralf Möller , Marcel Gehrke

Study of the bivariate normal distribution raises the full range of issues involving objective Bayesian inference, including the different types of objective priors (e.g., Jeffreys, invariant, reference, matching), the different modes of…

统计理论 · 数学 2008-12-18 James O. Berger , Dongchu Sun

Causality inference is prone to spurious causal interactions, due to the substantial confounders in a complex system. While many existing methods based on the statistical methods or dynamical methods attempt to address misidentification…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-13 Jinling Yan , Shao-Wu Zhang , Chihao Zhang , Weitian Huang , Jifan Shi , Luonan Chen

Zero-inflated outcomes, where responses are zero with positive probability and otherwise continuous, are common in biomedical, environmental, and social science studies. We propose a conformal prediction based framework that provides…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-07 Zhirui Li , Ricardo Diaz-Rincon , Benjamin Shickel , Sai Zhang , Sohom Bhattacharya , Muxuan Liang

Unmeasured confounding, unethical exposure, and ill-defined interventions pose significant challenges to evaluating policy-relevant mediation estimands in medicine and public health. In observational studies involving harmful exposures, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Yang Bai , Yifan Cui , Baoluo Sun

We introduce DeCaFlow, a deconfounding causal generative model. Training once per dataset using just observational data and the underlying causal graph, DeCaFlow enables accurate causal inference on continuous variables under the presence…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-27 Alejandro Almodóvar , Adrián Javaloy , Juan Parras , Santiago Zazo , Isabel Valera

Confounding can lead to spurious associations. Typically, one must observe confounders in order to adjust for them, but in high-dimensional settings, recent research has shown that it becomes possible to adjust even for unobserved…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-07 Yujing Lu , Patrick Breheny

Identifying and controlling bias is a key problem in empirical sciences. Causal diagram theory provides graphical criteria for deciding whether and how causal effects can be identified from observed (nonexperimental) data by covariate…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-02-20 Johannes Textor , Maciej Liskiewicz

We develop an encompassing framework for matching, covariate balancing, and doubly-robust methods for causal inference from observational data called generalized optimal matching (GOM). The framework is given by generalizing a new…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-10-30 Nathan Kallus

Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-01-09 Rebekah White , Rileigh Bandy , Teresa Portone

Making causal inferences from observational studies can be challenging when confounders are missing not at random. In such cases, identifying causal effects is often not guaranteed. Motivated by a real example, we consider a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-31 Jian Sun , Bo Fu

Counterfactual explanation is one branch of interpretable machine learning that produces a perturbation sample to change the model's original decision. The generated samples can act as a recommendation for end-users to achieve their desired…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-25 Tao Shen , Yifan Cui

We study the estimation of causal estimand involving the joint distribution of treatment and control outcomes for a single unit. In typical causal inference settings, it is impossible to observe both outcomes simultaneously, which places…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-16 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

A major challenge in estimating treatment effects in observational studies is the reliance on untestable conditions such as the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. In this work, we propose an algorithm that can falsify the assumption…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-03 Rickard K. A. Karlsson , Jesse H. Krijthe

In this paper, we consider the problem of fair statistical inference involving outcome variables. Examples include classification and regression problems, and estimating treatment effects in randomized trials or observational data. The…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-01-23 Razieh Nabi , Ilya Shpitser

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-17 Jing Zou , Wei Li , Wei Lin

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-17 Peng Wu , Xiaojie Mao

Ascertaining causal direction from observational data is a fundamental challenge in scientific inquiry. Of particular interest is the problem of covariate-adjusted bivariate causal discovery, i.e., determining the causal direction between X…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-30 Soumik Purkayastha , Peter X. -K. Song