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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-07-30 René M. van Westen , Elian Y. P. Vanderborght , Michael Kliphuis , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element of the climate system. The current estimate of the global warming threshold for the onset of an AMOC collapse is +4.0C (uncertainty range 1.4-8C). However, such a…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-04-30 René M. van Westen , Reyk Börner , Henk A. Dijkstra

Paleoclimate proxy records and models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can transition abruptly between a strong and a weak state. Empirical warning signals in observational fingerprints indeed suggest a…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a crucial part of the climate system because of its associated northward heat transport. The present-day MOC is sensitive to freshwater anomalies and may collapse to a state with a…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2015-06-19 Qing Yi Feng , Jan P. Viebahn , Henk A. Dijkstra

The results of a recent simulation with a complex global climate model suggest that the overturning component of the freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic could be used as an early-warning indicator of an AMOC…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-02-27 Erhard Reschenhofer

Recently the global average temperature has temporarily exceeded the 1.5{\deg}C goal of the Paris Agreement, and so an overshoot of various climate tipping elements becomes increasingly likely. In this study we analyze the physical…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-04-18 Jelle Soons , Tobias Grafke , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2023-04-19 Peter D. Ditlevsen , Susanne Ditlevsen

Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-12-22 Johannes Lohmann

Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2025-09-09 Wenjie Zhang , Yu Huang , Sebastian Bathiany , Yechul Shin , Maya Ben-Yami , Suiping Zhou , Niklas Boers

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is recognized as a tipping element within the global climate system. Central to its tipping behavior is the salt-advection feedback mechanism, which has been extensively studied in box…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-10-23 Elian Vanderborght , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

A catastrophic collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will have serious impacts on global climate. Based on eight AMOC proxies across the Atlantic basin Boers claimed to have found Early Warning Signals (EWS)…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2023-12-22 Xianyao Chen , Ka-Kit Tung

Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-12-24 Johannes Lohmann , Henk A. Dijkstra , Markus Jochum , Valerio Lucarini , Peter D. Ditlevsen

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-07-10 Jasmine Noory

Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-10-18 Shirin Panahi , Ling-Wei Kong , Mohammadamin Moradi , Zheng-Meng Zhai , Bryan Glaz , Mulugeta Haile , Ying-Cheng Lai

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the present-day climate, and could potentially collapse under sufficient freshwater or CO2-forcing. While the effect of the Bering Strait on AMOC stability…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-03-18 Jelle Soons , Henk A. Dijkstra

Declines in resilience have been observed in several climate tipping elements over the past decades, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest (AR). Large-scale nonlinear and possibly…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-07-08 Annika Högner , Giorgia Di Capua , Jonathan F. Donges , Reik V. Donner , Georg Feulner , Nico Wunderling

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-02-25 Sacha Sinet , Anna S. von der Heydt , Henk A. Dijkstra

There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-06-18 Emma J. V. Smolders , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2026-03-09 Reyk Börner , Oliver Mehling , Jost von Hardenberg , Valerio Lucarini

All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate…

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