相关论文: CausalOps -- Towards an Industrial Lifecycle for C…

Causal discovery is a data-driven paradigm for analyzing complex systems, while physics-based models, such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs), provide mechanistic structure for real-world dynamical processes. Integrating these…

Causality is receiving increasing attention in the Recommendation Systems (RSs) community, which has realised that RSs could greatly benefit from causality to transform accurate predictions into effective and explainable decisions. Indeed,…

Inferring cause-effect relationships from observational data has gained significant attention in recent years, but most methods are limited to scalar random variables. In many important domains, including neuroscience, psychology, social…

Graphs are expressive abstractions representing more effectively relationships in data and enabling data science tasks. They are also a widely adopted paradigm in causal inference focusing on causal directed acyclic graphs. Causal DAGs…

Video analytics systems based on deep learning models are often opaque and brittle and require explanation systems to help users debug. Current model explanation system are very good at giving literal explanations of behavior in terms of…

Causality is vital for understanding true cause-and-effect relationships between variables within predictive models, rather than relying on mere correlations, making it highly relevant in the field of Explainable AI. In an automated…

Theoretical developments in sequential Bayesian analysis of multivariate dynamic models underlie new methodology for causal prediction. This extends the utility of existing models with computationally efficient methodology, enabling routine…

Method validation and study design in causal inference rely on synthetic data with known counterfactuals. Existing simulators trade off distributional realism, the ability to capture mixed-type and multimodal tabular data, against causal…

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

Causality is essential in scientific research, enabling researchers to interpret true relationships between variables. These causal relationships are often represented by causal graphs, which are directed acyclic graphs. With the recent…

Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…

Streamflow forecasting is crucial for water resource management and risk mitigation. While deep learning models have achieved strong predictive performance, they often overlook underlying physical processes, limiting interpretability and…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have transformed artificial intelligence from primarily generative systems into increasingly capable reasoning agents. Recent advances in theorem proving, autoformalization, symbolic reasoning, and…

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime…

There are two issues in news-driven multi-stock movement prediction tasks that are not well solved in the existing works. On the one hand, "relation discovery" is a pivotal part when leveraging the price information of other stocks to…

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…

Causal reasoning is a cornerstone of how humans interpret the world. To model and reason about causality, causal graphs offer a concise yet effective solution. Given the impressive advancements in language models, a crucial question arises:…

We propose a framework for building graphical causal model that is based on the concept of causal mechanisms. Causal models are intuitive for human users and, more importantly, support the prediction of the effect of manipulation. We…

We develop rigorous notions of causality and causal separability in the process framework introduced in [Oreshkov, Costa, Brukner, Nat. Commun. 3, 1092 (2012)], which describes correlations between separate local experiments without a prior…

Large language model (LLM) agents-especially smaller, open-source models-often produce causally invalid or incoherent actions in collaborative tasks due to their reliance on surface-level correlations rather than grounded causal reasoning.…