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Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-01-17 Jean Daunizeau

A new dynamic latent space eigenmodel (LSM) is proposed for weighted temporal networks. The model accommodates integer-valued weights, excess of zeros, time-varying node positions (features), and time-varying network sparsity. The latent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-15 Roberto Casarin , Matteo Iacopini , Antonio Peruzzi

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-08-01 Qingping Zhou , Wenqing Liu , Jinglai Li , Youssef M. Marzouk

Some machine learning applications require continual learning - where data comes in a sequence of datasets, each is used for training and then permanently discarded. From a Bayesian perspective, continual learning seems straightforward:…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-02-19 Sebastian Farquhar , Yarin Gal

In this work we consider Bayesian inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. We present a method to compute an approximate of the posterior with a limited number of model simulations. The method features an inverse Gaussian…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-02-23 Hongqiao Wang , Ziqiao Ao , Tengchao Yu , Jinglai Li

We study Bayesian hypernetworks: a framework for approximate Bayesian inference in neural networks. A Bayesian hypernetwork $\h$ is a neural network which learns to transform a simple noise distribution, $p(\vec\epsilon) = \N(\vec 0,\mat…

Non-Gaussian likelihoods are essential for modelling complex real-world observations but pose significant computational challenges in learning and inference. Even with Gaussian priors, non-Gaussian likelihoods often lead to analytically…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-29 Thang D. Bui

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-01-30 Hagai Attias

Deep learning has revolutionized the last decade, being at the forefront of extraordinary advances in a wide range of tasks including computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning, to name but a few. However, it…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-24 Sebastian W. Ober

Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-15 Tim Rensmeyer , Oliver Niggemann

Despite their theoretical appealingness, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are left behind in real-world adoption, mainly due to persistent concerns on their scalability, accessibility, and reliability. In this work, we develop the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-14 Zhijie Deng , Jun Zhu

This paper introduces a new neural network based prior for real valued functions on $\mathbb R^d$ which, by construction, is more easily and cheaply scaled up in the domain dimension $d$ compared to the usual Karhunen-Lo\`eve function space…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-09 Torben Sell , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-11-09 Charles C. Margossian , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Raj Agrawal

We propose a Bayesian approach for recursively estimating the classifier weights in online learning of a classifier ensemble. In contrast with past methods, such as stochastic gradient descent or online boosting, our approach estimates the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-07-09 Qinxun Bai , Henry Lam , Stan Sclaroff

We consider the problem of sampling from a product-of-experts-type model that encompasses many standard prior and posterior distributions commonly found in Bayesian imaging. We show that this model can be easily lifted into a novel latent…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-04-16 Muhamed Kuric , Martin Zach , Andreas Habring , Michael Unser , Thomas Pock

We present non-asymptotic two-sided bounds to the log-marginal likelihood in Bayesian inference. The classical Laplace approximation is recovered as the leading term. Our derivation permits model misspecification and allows the parameter…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-06-23 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-01-22 Katharine Fisher , Youssef Marzouk

We challenge the longstanding assumption that the mean-field approximation for variational inference in Bayesian neural networks is severely restrictive, and show this is not the case in deep networks. We prove several results indicating…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-11 Sebastian Farquhar , Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal

We consider the accuracy of an approximate posterior distribution in nonparametric regression problems by combining posterior distributions computed on subsets of the data defined by the locations of the independent variables. We show that…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-04-29 Botond Szabo , Amine Hadji , Aad van der Vaart