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Modern generative models can produce realistic samples, however, balancing memorisation and generalisation remains an open problem. We approach this challenge from a Bayesian perspective by focusing on the parameter space of flow matching…

We propose a generalized double Pareto prior for Bayesian shrinkage estimation and inferences in linear models. The prior can be obtained via a scale mixture of Laplace or normal distributions, forming a bridge between the Laplace and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-19 Artin Armagan , David Dunson , Jaeyong Lee

The distribution of the weights of modern deep neural networks (DNNs) - crucial for uncertainty quantification and robustness - is an eminently complex object due to its extremely high dimensionality. This paper proposes one of the first…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-10-13 Olivier Laurent , Emanuel Aldea , Gianni Franchi

The point estimates of ReLU classification networks---arguably the most widely used neural network architecture---have been shown to yield arbitrarily high confidence far away from the training data. This architecture, in conjunction with a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-07-20 Agustinus Kristiadi , Matthias Hein , Philipp Hennig

Gaussian variational approximation is a popular methodology to approximate posterior distributions in Bayesian inference especially in high dimensional and large data settings. To control the computational cost while being able to capture…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-04-07 Bingxin Zhou , Junbin Gao , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Richard Gerlach

We propose a new Bayesian strategy for adaptation to smoothness in nonparametric models based on heavy tailed series priors. We illustrate it in a variety of settings, showing in particular that the corresponding Bayesian posterior…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-05-30 Sergios Agapiou , Ismaël Castillo

Probabilistic neural networks are typically modeled with independent weight priors, which do not capture weight correlations in the prior and do not provide a parsimonious interface to express properties in function space. A desirable class…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-02-12 Theofanis Karaletsos , Thang D. Bui

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-31 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Pavel Izmailov

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

We consider a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems in a separable Hilbert space setting with Gaussian noise. We assume Gaussian priors, which are conjugate to the model, and present a method of identifying…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-08-05 Sergios Agapiou , Stig Larsson , Andrew M. Stuart

Artificial neural networks (NNs) have become the de facto standard in machine learning. They allow learning highly nonlinear transformations in a plethora of applications. However, NNs usually only provide point estimates without…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-09-11 Marco F. Huber

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

Robotic grasping in highly noisy environments presents complex challenges, especially with limited prior knowledge about the scene. In particular, identifying good grasping poses with Bayesian inference becomes difficult due to two reasons:…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2023-04-20 Norman Marlier , Julien Gustin , Olivier Brüls , Gilles Louppe

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Deep learning has been the engine powering many successes of data science. However, the deep neural network (DNN), as the basic model of deep learning, is often excessively over-parameterized, causing many difficulties in training,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-03-09 Yan Sun , Qifan Song , Faming Liang

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-09-29 Tiep Mai , Simon Wilson

The prominent Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) result claims that the posterior distribution after centering by the efficient estimator and standardizing by the square root of the total Fisher information is nearly standard normal. In…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-06-02 Vladimir Spokoiny , Maxim Panov

We develop a Bayesian approach to estimate weight matrices in spatial autoregressive (or spatial lag) models. Datasets in regional economic literature are typically characterized by a limited number of time periods T relative to spatial…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-08-03 Tamás Krisztin , Philipp Piribauer

We propose a Bayesian elastic net that uses empirical likelihood and develop an efficient tuning of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for posterior sampling. The proposed model relaxes the assumptions on the identity of the error distribution,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-20 Chul Moon , Adel Bedoui

In many real-world problems, there is a limited set of training data, but an abundance of unlabeled data. We propose a new method, Generative Posterior Networks (GPNs), that uses unlabeled data to estimate epistemic uncertainty in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-01 Melrose Roderick , Felix Berkenkamp , Fatemeh Sheikholeslami , Zico Kolter