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This paper studies identification and inference of the welfare gain that results from switching from one policy (such as the status quo policy) to another policy. The welfare gain is not point identified in general when data are obtained…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-07-12 Undral Byambadalai

This paper proposes a framewrok for analyzing how the welfare effects of policy interventions are distributed across individuals when those effects are unobserved. Rather than focusing solely on average outcomes, the approach uses readily…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-25 Costas Lambros , Emerson Melo

Social disruption occurs when a policy creates or destroys many network connections between agents. It is a costly side effect of many interventions and so a growing empirical literature recommends measuring and accounting for social…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-07-29 Eric Auerbach , Yong Cai

Counterfactual distributions are important ingredients for policy analysis and decomposition analysis in empirical economics. In this article we develop modeling and inference tools for counterfactual distributions based on regression…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernandez-Val , Blaise Melly

Strong empirical evidence from laboratory experiments, and more recently from population surveys, shows that individuals, when evaluating their situations, pay attention to whether they experience gains or losses, with losses weighing more…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2025-10-17 Martyna Kobus , Radosław Kurek , Thomas Parker

This paper investigates how certain relationship between observed and counterfactual distributions serves as an identifying condition for treatment effects when the treatment is endogenous, and shows that this condition holds in a range of…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-11-28 Sukjin Han , Haiqing Xu

From the social sciences to machine learning, it has been well documented that metrics to be optimized are not always aligned with social welfare. In healthcare, Dranove et al. (2003) showed that publishing surgery mortality metrics…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-01 Serena Wang , Stephen Bates , P. M. Aronow , Michael I. Jordan

Applied Difference-in-Differences studies often involve outcomes that are discrete, mixed, censored, or otherwise non-continuously distributed, while policy questions frequently concern distributional effects rather than mean effects alone.…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-22 Nelly K. Djuazon , Emmanuel Selorm Tsyawo

This paper proposes a framework to analyze the effects of counterfactual policies on the unconditional quantiles of an outcome variable. For a given counterfactual policy, we obtain identified sets for the effect of both marginal and global…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-07 Julian Martinez-Iriarte

The counterfactual distribution models the effect of the treatment in the untreated group. While most of the work focuses on the expected values of the treatment effect, one may be interested in the whole counterfactual distribution or…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-11-04 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Dino Sejdinovic

We provide a simple distribution regression estimator for treatment effects in the difference-in-differences (DiD) design. Our procedure is particularly useful when the treatment effect differs across the distribution of the outcome…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-20 Iván Fernández-Val , Jonas Meier , Aico van Vuuren , Francis Vella

This document offers a synthesis of recent economic literature on three interconnected areas of labor markets: informality, the effects of the minimum wage, and monopsony power. Through the consolidation and meta-analysis of findings from…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2025-09-26 Ricardo Alonzo Fernandez Salguero

We study settings in which a researcher has an instrumental variable (IV) and seeks to evaluate the effects of a counterfactual policy that alters treatment assignment, such as a directive encouraging randomly assigned judges to release…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-03-16 Michal Kolesár , José Luis Montiel Olea , Jonathan Roth

Important questions for impact evaluation require knowledge not only of average effects, but of the distribution of treatment effects. The inability to observe individual counterfactuals makes answering these empirical questions…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-25 Bruno Fava

Scholars of social stratification often study exposures that shape life outcomes. But some outcomes (such as wage) only exist for some people (such as those who are employed). We show how a common practice -- dropping cases with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-21 Ian Lundberg , Soonhong Cho

Existing research on the static effects of the manipulation of welfare program benefit parameters on labor supply has allowed only restrictive forms of heterogeneity in preferences. Yet preference heterogeneity implies that the marginal…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2022-02-08 Robert A. Moffitt , Matthew V. Zahn

Simple agent based exchange models are a commonplace in the study of wealth distribution in an artificial economy. Generally, in a system that is composed of many agents characterized by their wealth and risk-aversion factor, two agents are…

We propose a nonlinear difference-in-differences method to estimate multivariate counterfactual distributions in classical treatment and control study designs with observational data. Our approach sheds a new light on existing approaches…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-11 William Torous , Florian Gunsilius , Philippe Rigollet

Heterogeneous treatment effects are of major interest in economics. For example, a poverty reduction measure would be best evaluated by its effects on those who would be poor in the absence of the treatment, or by the share among the poor…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-08-07 Tetsuya Kaji , Jianfei Cao

We study how a monopolist's use of consumer data for price discrimination affects welfare. To answer this question, we develop a model of market segmentation subject to residual uncertainty. We fully characterize when data usage…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-20 Maryam Farboodi , Nima Haghpanah , Ali Shourideh
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