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Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Nan Feng , Xun Huan

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Variational inference uses optimization, rather than integration, to approximate the marginal likelihood, and thereby the posterior, in a Bayesian model. Thanks to advances in computational scalability made in the last decade, variational…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-01-04 Jens Sjölund

There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-12-28 Cheng Li , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

Mean-field variational inference is a method for approximate Bayesian posterior inference. It approximates a full posterior distribution with a factorized set of distributions by maximizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood. This…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-07-03 John Paisley , David Blei , Michael Jordan

We introduce a flexible empirical Bayes approach for fitting Bayesian generalized linear models. Specifically, we adopt a novel mean-field variational inference (VI) method and the prior is estimated within the VI algorithm, making the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-30 Dongyue Xie , Wanrong Zhu , Matthew Stephens

Approximating a probability density in a tractable manner is a central task in Bayesian statistics. Variational Inference (VI) is a popular technique that achieves tractability by choosing a relatively simple variational family. Borrowing…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-11-30 Francesco Locatello , Gideon Dresdner , Rajiv Khanna , Isabel Valera , Gunnar Rätsch

Inverse problems of partial differential equations are ubiquitous across various scientific disciplines and can be formulated as statistical inference problems using Bayes' theorem. To address large-scale problems, it is crucial to develop…

数值分析 · 数学 2025-12-23 Yang Zhao , Haoyu Lu , Junxiong Jia , Tao Zhou

While Bayesian methods are extremely popular in statistics and machine learning, their application to massive datasets is often challenging, when possible at all. Indeed, the classical MCMC algorithms are prohibitively slow when both the…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-04-23 Pierre Alquier , James Ridgway

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Laplace approximation (LA) and variational inference (VI) methods are popular approaches to Bayesian inference, each with trade-offs between computational cost and accuracy. However, a theoretical…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Martin Chak , Giacomo Zanella

We propose a unified framework that employs variational inference (VI) with (conditional) normalizing flows (NFs) to train both between-model and within-model proposals for reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, enabling efficient…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-02-05 Pingping Yin , Xiyun Jiao

Most leading implementations of black-box variational inference (BBVI) are based on optimizing a stochastic evidence lower bound (ELBO). But such approaches to BBVI often converge slowly due to the high variance of their gradient estimates…

This paper tackles the challenge of multi-sensor multi-object tracking by proposing various decentralised Variational Inference (VI) schemes that match the tracking performance of centralised sensor fusion with only local message exchanges…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-26 Qing Li , Runze Gan , Simon Godsill

The spatial error model (SEM) is a type of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model for analysing spatially correlated data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most widely used Bayesian methods for estimating SEM, but it has…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-14 Anjana Wijayawardhana , David Gunawan , Thomas Suesse

Variational inference (VI) is a cornerstone of modern Bayesian learning, enabling approximate inference in complex models. However, its formulation depends on expectations and divergences defined through high-dimensional integrals, often…

Variational inference (VI) is a specific type of approximate Bayesian inference that approximates an intractable posterior distribution with a tractable one. VI casts the inference problem as an optimization problem, more specifically, the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-20 Felix Leibfried

We develop a fast and accurate grouped penalized credible region approach for variable selection and prediction in Bayesian high-dimensional linear regression. Most existing Bayesian methods either are subject to high computational costs…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-26 Weichang Yu , Khue-Dung Dang

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) greatly enriches the expressiveness of variational families by considering implicit variational distributions defined in a hierarchical manner. However, due to the intractable densities of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-08-22 Longlin Yu , Cheng Zhang

This paper develops a matrix-variate adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology for Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressions (CVAR). We replace the popular approach to sampling Bayesian CVAR models, involving griddy Gibbs,…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2010-04-23 Gareth W. Peters , Balakrishnan Kannan , Ben Lasscock , Chris Mellen
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