相关论文: Evidence Networks: simple losses for fast, amortiz…

A Bayesian network is a graphical model that encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. When used in conjunction with statistical techniques, the graphical model has several advantages for data analysis. One, because…

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They…

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Low-dimensional probability models for local distribution functions in a Bayesian network include decision trees, decision graphs, and causal independence models. We describe a new probability model for discrete Bayesian networks, which we…

In this paper, we use evidence-specific value abstraction for speeding Bayesian networks inference. This is done by grouping variable values and treating the combined values as a single entity. As we show, such abstractions can exploit…

Modeling natural phenomena with artificial neural networks (ANNs) often provides highly accurate predictions. However, ANNs often suffer from over-parameterization, complicating interpretation and raising uncertainty issues. Bayesian neural…

To learn (statistical) dependencies among random variables requires exponentially large sample size in the number of observed random variables if any arbitrary joint probability distribution can occur. We consider the case that sparse data…

Bayesian network is a complete model for the variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to…

Sensitivity forecasts inform the design of experiments and the direction of theoretical efforts. To arrive at representative results, Bayesian forecasts should marginalize their conclusions over uncertain parameters and noise realizations…

Bayesian neural networks utilize probabilistic layers that capture uncertainty over weights and activations, and are trained using Bayesian inference. Since these probabilistic layers are designed to be drop-in replacement of their…

Statisticians often face the choice between using probability models or a paradigm defined by minimising a loss function. Both approaches are useful and, if the loss can be re-cast into a proper probability model, there are many tools to…

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) work well on large datasets. But labelled data is hard to collect, and in some applications larger amounts of data are not available. The problem then is how to use CNNs with small data -- as CNNs…

Approximate Bayesian inference methods provide a powerful suite of tools for finding approximations to intractable posterior distributions. However, machine learning applications typically involve selecting actions, which -- in a Bayesian…

Incomplete data are a common feature in many domains, from clinical trials to industrial applications. Bayesian networks (BNs) are often used in these domains because of their graphical and causal interpretations. BN parameter learning from…

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function…