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Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-12-17 Xixi Li , Fotios Petropoulos , Yanfei Kang

We consider conformal prediction for multivariate data and focus on hierarchical data, where some components are linear combinations of others. Intuitively, the hierarchical structure can be leveraged to reduce the size of prediction…

We propose HHFT (Hierarchical Heterogeneous Feature Transformer), a Transformer-based architecture tailored for industrial CTR prediction. HHFT addresses the limitations of DNN through three key designs: (1) Semantic Feature Partitioning:…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2025-12-16 Liren Yu , Wenming Zhang , Silu Zhou , Tao Zhang , Zhixuan Zhang , Dan Ou

Coherently forecasting the behaviour of a target variable across both coarse and fine temporal scales is crucial for profit-optimized decision-making in several business applications, and remains an open research problem in temporal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-25 Alessandro Salatiello , Stefan Birr , Manuel Kunz

We introduce a framework to dynamically combine heterogeneous models called \texttt{DYCHEM}, which forecasts a set of time series that are related through an aggregation hierarchy. Different types of forecasting models can be employed as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-18 Xing Han , Jing Hu , Joydeep Ghosh

Despite the success of fully-supervised human skeleton sequence modeling, utilizing self-supervised pre-training for skeleton sequence representation learning has been an active field because acquiring task-specific skeleton annotations at…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-03-28 Yuxiao Chen , Long Zhao , Jianbo Yuan , Yu Tian , Zhaoyang Xia , Shijie Geng , Ligong Han , Dimitris N. Metaxas

In the past few years, time series foundation models have achieved superior predicting accuracy. However, real-world time series often exhibit significant diversity in their temporal patterns across different time spans and domains, making…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-19 Aobo Liang , Yan Sun , Xiaohou Shi , Ke Li

Recent studies have shown great promise in applying graph neural networks for multivariate time series forecasting, where the interactions of time series are described as a graph structure and the variables are represented as the graph…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-29 Junchen Ye , Zihan Liu , Bowen Du , Leilei Sun , Weimiao Li , Yanjie Fu , Hui Xiong

Multivariate long-term time series forecasting is of great application across many domains, such as energy consumption and weather forecasting. With the development of transformer-based methods, the performance of multivariate long-term…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-29 Zheng Sun , Yi Wei , Wenxiao Jia , Long Yu

Many real-life applications involve simultaneously forecasting multiple time series that are hierarchically related via aggregation or disaggregation operations. For instance, commercial organizations often want to forecast inventories…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-26 Xing Han , Sambarta Dasgupta , Joydeep Ghosh

Statistical postprocessing is used to translate ensembles of raw numerical weather forecasts into reliable probabilistic forecast distributions. In this study, we examine the use of permutation-invariant neural networks for this task. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-01-22 Kevin Höhlein , Benedikt Schulz , Rüdiger Westermann , Sebastian Lerch

This paper presents a hybrid model-AI framework for real-time dynamic security assessment of frequency stability in power systems. The proposed method rapidly estimates key frequency parameters under a dynamic set of disturbances, which are…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-12-12 Francisco Zelaya-Arrazabal , Sebastian Martinez-Lizana , Hector Pulgar-Painemal , Jin Zhao

This paper discusses the prediction of hierarchical time series, where each upper-level time series is calculated by summing appropriate lower-level time series. Forecasts for such hierarchical time series should be coherent, meaning that…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-27 Tomokaze Shiratori , Ken Kobayashi , Yuichi Takano

Forecasting multivariate time series data, such as prediction of electricity consumption, solar power production, and polyphonic piano pieces, has numerous valuable applications. However, complex and non-linear interdependencies between…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-20 Shun-Yao Shih , Fan-Keng Sun , Hung-yi Lee

Time series classification stands as a pivotal and intricate challenge across various domains, including finance, healthcare, and industrial systems. In contemporary research, there has been a notable upsurge in exploring feature extraction…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-24 Alireza Keshavarzian , Shahrokh Valaee

In the complex landscape of multivariate time series forecasting, achieving both accuracy and interpretability remains a significant challenge. This paper introduces the Fuzzy Transformer (Fuzzformer), a novel recurrent neural network…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-10-02 Miha Ožbot , Igor Škrjanc , Vitomir Štruc

Analyzing sequential data is crucial in many domains, particularly due to the abundance of data collected from the Internet of Things paradigm. Time series classification, the task of categorizing sequential data, has gained prominence,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-21 Venkata Ragavendra Vavilthota , Ranjith Ramanathan , Sathyanarayanan N. Aakur

What sets timeseries analysis apart from other machine learning exercises is that time representation becomes a primary aspect of the experiment setup, as it must adequately represent the temporal relations that are relevant for the…

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-18 Kashif Rasul , Abdul-Saboor Sheikh , Ingmar Schuster , Urs Bergmann , Roland Vollgraf

This paper explores the novel deep learning Transformers architectures for high-frequency Bitcoin-USDT log-return forecasting and compares them to the traditional Long Short-Term Memory models. A hybrid Transformer model, called…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2023-02-28 Fazl Barez , Paul Bilokon , Arthur Gervais , Nikita Lisitsyn