相关论文: Ensemble Learning for CME Arrival Time Prediction

We investigate the source eruption, propagation and expansion characteristics, and heliospheric impacts of the 2020 November 29 coronal mass ejection (CME) and associated shock, using remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple…

A geomagnetic storm is mainly caused by a front-side coronal mass ejection (CME) hitting the Earth and then interacting with the magnetosphere. However, not all front-side CMEs can hit the Earth. Thus, which CMEs hit the Earth and when they…

We analyse in this work the propagation and geoeffectiveness of four successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupted from the Sun during 21--23 May 2013 and that were detected in interplanetary space by the Wind and/or STEREO-A…

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are among the most magnificent solar eruptions, are a major driver of space weather and can thus affect diverse human technologies. Different processes have been proposed to explain the initiation and…

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can catch up and interact with preceding CMEs and solar wind structures to undergo rotation and deflection during their propagation. We aim to show how interactions undergone by a CME in the corona and…

We describe a geometric triangulation technique, based on time-elongation maps constructed from imaging observations, to track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) continuously in the heliosphere and predict their impact on the Earth. Taking…

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are space weather phenomena capable of causing significant disruptions to both space- and ground-based infrastructure. The timely and accurate detection and prediction of CMEs is a crucial steps towards…

Recent discoveries have revealed exoplanets orbiting young Sun-like stars, offering a window into the early solar system. These young stars frequently produce extreme magnetic explosions known as superflares, roughly once a day, potentially…

Accurate estimation of propagation characteristics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is crucial for predicting their geoeffectiveness. Stereoscopic techniques to study the kinematics of CMEs generally have been carried out using remote…

The contribution of this work is twofold: (1) We introduce a collection of ensemble methods for time series forecasting to combine predictions from base models. We demonstrate insights on the power of ensemble learning for forecasting,…

The interaction of multiple Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) has been observed by LASCO coronagraphs and by near-Earth spacecraft, and it is thought to be an important cause of geo-effective storms, large Solar Energetic Particles events and…

The acceleration of protons and electrons to high (sometimes GeV/nucleon) energies by solar phenomena is a key component of space weather. These solar energetic particle (SEP) events can damage spacecraft and communications, as well as…

Motivated by the need to improve the ability to forecast whether a certain coronal mass ejection (CME) is to impact Earth, and by the insufficiency of statistical studies that analyze the whole erupting system with the focus on the…

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key drivers of space weather events, posing risks to both space-borne and ground-based systems. Accurate prediction of their arrival time at Earth is critical for impact mitigation. To this end,…

The empirical shock arrival (ESA) model was developed based on quadrature data from Helios (in-situ) and P-78 (remote-sensing) to predict the Sun-Earth travel time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) [Gopalswamy et al. 2005a]. The ESA model…

Improving predictions of the geomagnetic impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires understanding how solar source properties relate to in-situ measurements at Earth. However, major geomagnetic storms frequently arise from interacting…

Solar Energetic Particle events (SEPs) are among the most dangerous transient phenomena of solar activity. As hazardous radiation, SEPs may affect the health of astronauts in outer space and adversely impact current and future space…

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events, usually attributed to shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), show a wide variety of temporal behaviors. For example, TO, the >10 MeV proton onset time with respect to the launch…

(abridged) The acceleration of particles at the Sun and their propagation through interplanetary space are key topics in heliophysics. Specifically, solar energetic electrons (SEEs) measured in situ can be linked to solar flares and coronal…

The explosion of space weather research since the early 1990s has been partly fueled by the unprecedented, uniform, and extended observations of solar disturbances from space and ground based instruments. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from…