相关论文: Meaningful Causal Aggregation and Paradoxical Conf…

One obstacle to ``elevating" correlation to causation is the phenomenon of confounding, i.e., when a correlation between two variables exists because both variables are in fact caused by a third variable. The situation where the confounders…

Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…

We present a class of inequality constraints on the set of distributions induced by local interventions on variables governed by a causal Bayesian network, in which some of the variables remain unmeasured. We derive bounds on causal effects…

Unmeasured confounding presents a common challenge in observational studies, potentially making standard causal parameters unidentifiable without additional assumptions. Given the increasing availability of diverse data sources, exploiting…

Understanding causal relations in dynamic systems is essential in epidemiology. While causal inference methods have been extensively studied, they often rely on fully specified causal graphs, which may not always be available in complex…

Causal abstraction provides a theory describing how several causal models can represent the same system at different levels of detail. Existing theoretical proposals limit the analysis of abstract models to "hard" interventions fixing…

Identifying causal relationships from observation data is difficult, in large part, due to the presence of hidden common causes. In some cases, where just the right patterns of conditional independence and dependence lie in the data---for…

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

The description of the dynamics of complex systems, in particular the capture of the interaction structure and causal relationships between elements of the system, is one of the central questions of interdisciplinary research. While the…

Results in epidemiology and social science often require the removal of confounding effects from measurements of the pairwise correlation of variables in survey data. This is typically accomplished by some variant of linear regression…

Causal mediation analysis provides techniques for defining and estimating effects that may be endowed with mechanistic interpretations. With many scientific investigations seeking to address mechanistic questions, causal direct and indirect…

Abstractions of causal models allow for the coarsening of models such that relations of cause and effect are preserved. Whereas abstractions focus on the relation between two models, in this paper we study a framework for causal embeddings…

Estimating the causal effects of an intervention in the presence of confounding is a frequently occurring problem in applications such as medicine. The task is challenging since there may be multiple confounding factors, some of which may…

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

In modeling multivariate time series for either forecast or policy analysis, it would be beneficial to have figured out the cause-effect relations within the data. Regression analysis, however, is generally for correlation relation, and…

In recent years, many methods have been developed for detecting causal relationships in observational data. Some of them have the potential to tackle large data sets. However, these methods fail to discover a combined cause, i.e. a…

We consider causal models with two observed variables and one latent variables, each variable being discrete, with the goal of characterizing the possible distributions on outcomes that can result from controlling one of the observed…

The task of inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations, commonly referred to as causal representation learning, is fundamentally underconstrained. As such, recent works to address this problem focus on various…

There exist well-developed frameworks for causal modelling, but these require rather a lot of human domain expertise to define causal variables and perform interventions. In order to enable autonomous agents to learn abstract causal models…

Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…