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In this paper, we assess and develop a climate service focused on the production of seasonal predictions for summer wildfires in a Mediterranean region through a participatory approach with end-users. We start by building a data-driven…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2019-05-06 Marco Turco , Raul Marcos-Matamoros , Xavier Castro , Esteve Canyameras , Maria Carmen Llasat

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-10 Lizao Li , Rob Carver , Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Fei Sha , John Anderson

Genomic selection has increased genetic gain in several livestock species, but due to the complicated genetics and reproduction biology not yet in honey bees. Recently, 2 970 queens were genotyped to gather a reference population. For the…

基因组学 · 定量生物学 2022-06-16 Richard Bernstein , Manuel Du , Zhipei G. Du , Anja S. Strauss , Andreas Hoppe , Kaspar Bienefeld

Seasonal forecasting is a crucial task when it comes to detecting the extreme heat and colds that occur due to climate change. Confidence in the predictions should be reliable since a small increase in the temperatures in a year has a big…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-05 Busra Asan , Abdullah Akgül , Alper Unal , Melih Kandemir , Gozde Unal

Recently, the use of machine learning in meteorology has increased greatly. While many machine learning methods are not new, university classes on machine learning are largely unavailable to meteorology students and are not required to…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2022-08-16 Randy J. Chase , David R. Harrison , Amanda Burke , Gary M. Lackmann , Amy McGovern

In the last decades wind power became the second largest energy source in the EU covering 16% of its electricity demand. However, due to its volatility, accurate short range wind power predictions are required for successful integration of…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-06-22 Sándor Baran , Ágnes Baran

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-03-02 Sarah Higgins , Hailiang Du , Leonard A. Smith

The development of an intelligent agricultural decision-supporting system for crop selection and disease forecasting in Bangladesh is the main objective of this work. The economy of the nation depends heavily on agriculture. However,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-29 Forkan Uddin Ahmed , Annesha Das , Md Zubair

Economic complexity methods, and in particular relatedness measures, lack a systematic evaluation and comparison framework. We argue that out-of-sample forecast exercises should play this role, and we compare various machine learning models…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-01 Giambattista Albora , Luciano Pietronero , Andrea Tacchella , Andrea Zaccaria

Accurate forecasts for day-ahead photovoltaic (PV) power generation are crucial to support a high PV penetration rate in the local electricity grid and to assure stability in the grid. We use state-of-the-art tree-based machine learning…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-04 Nick Berlanger , Noah van Ophoven , Tim Verdonck , Ines Wilms

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-03-17 Charlie Kirkwood , Theo Economou , Henry Odbert , Nicolas Pugeault

Accurate travel products price forecasting is a highly desired feature that allows customers to take informed decisions about purchases, and companies to build and offer attractive tour packages. Thanks to machine learning (ML), it is now…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-06-10 Rosa Candela , Pietro Michiardi , Maurizio Filippone , Maria A. Zuluaga

Rainfall prediction is one of the challenging and uncertain tasks which has a significant impact on human society. Timely and accurate predictions can help to proactively reduce human and financial loss. This study presents a set of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-31 Nikhil Oswal

Yield forecast is essential to agriculture stakeholders and can be obtained with the use of machine learning models and data coming from multiple sources. Most solutions for yield forecast rely on NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2018-10-17 Igor Oliveira , Renato L. F. Cunha , Bruno Silva , Marco A. S. Netto

HiveLink, the IoT-based Smart Bee Hive Monitoring System addresses the challenges faced by beekeepers in managing the influence of environmental impact, diseases, and collapse in honey bee colonies. Integrated with advanced sensors, the…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-09-22 Ajwin Dsouza , Aditya P , Sameer Hegde

In this work, we aim to formalize a novel scientific machine learning framework to reconstruct the hidden dynamics of the transmission rate, whose inaccurate extrapolation can significantly impair the quality of the epidemic forecasts, by…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2024-10-16 Giovanni Ziarelli , Stefano Pagani , Nicola Parolini , Francesco Regazzoni , Marco Verani

In this study, we apply functional regression analysis to identify the specific within-season periods during which temperature and precipitation anomalies most affect crop yields. Using provincial data for Italy from 1952 to 2023, we…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-01-21 Giovanni Bocchi , Alessandra Micheletti , Paolo Nota , Alessandro Olper

The issue of the accuracy of wind speed/power forecasts is becoming more and more important as wind power production continues to increase year after year. Having accurate forecasts for the energy market clashes with intrinsic difficulties…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2022-06-23 Gabriele Casciaro , Francesco Ferrari , Mattia Cavaiola , Andrea Mazzino

Accurate prediction of grape phenology is essential for timely vineyard management decisions, such as scheduling irrigation and fertilization, to maximize crop yield and quality. While traditional biophysical models calibrated on historical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-07 William Solow , Sandhya Saisubramanian

Hierarchical forecasting methods have been widely used to support aligned decision-making by providing coherent forecasts at different aggregation levels. Traditional hierarchical forecasting approaches, such as the bottom-up and top-down…