相关论文: Predicting Hurricane Evacuation Decisions with Int…

Hurricanes cause significant economic and human costs, requiring individuals to make critical evacuation decisions under uncertainty and stress. To enhance the understanding of this decision-making process, we propose using Bayesian…

Evacuation decision prediction is critical for efficient and effective wildfire response by helping emergency management anticipate traffic congestion and bottlenecks, allocate resources, and minimize negative impacts. Traditional…

Accurate traffic prediction is vital for effective traffic management during hurricane evacuation. This paper proposes a predictive modeling system that integrates Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) models to…

Hurricane evacuation, ordered to save lives of people of coastal regions, generates high traffic demand with increased crash risk. To mitigate such risk, transportation agencies need to anticipate highway locations with high crash risks to…

In this paper, we study the problem of forecasting the next year's number of Atlantic hurricanes, which is relevant in many fields of applications such as land-use planning, hazard mitigation, reinsurance and long-term weather derivative…

Traffic prediction during hurricane evacuation is essential for optimizing the use of transportation infrastructures. It can reduce evacuation time by providing information on future congestion in advance. However, evacuation traffic…

Risk assessment for extreme events requires accurate estimation of high quantiles that go beyond the range of historical observations. When the risk depends on the values of observed predictors, regression techniques are used to interpolate…

Accurate prediction of evacuation behavior is critical for disaster preparedness, yet models trained in one region often fail elsewhere. Using a multi-state hurricane evacuation survey, we show this failure goes beyond feature distribution…

Evacuation is critical for disaster safety, yet agencies lack timely, accurate, and transparent tools for evacuation prediction. This study introduces Evac-Cast, an interpretable machine learning framework that predicts tract-level…

The Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is a growing statistical technique widely applied to regression problems. In essence, ELMs are single-layer neural networks where the hidden layer weights are randomly sampled from a specific distribution,…

Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…

Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…

For an approaching disaster, the tracking of time-sensitive critical information such as hurricane evacuation notices is challenging in the United States. These notices are issued and distributed rapidly by numerous local authorities that…

Atmospheric Extreme Events (EEs) cause severe damages to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of EEs and other associated events are increasing in the current climate change and global warming risk. The accurate…

Although each year brings rapid advancement in meteorology and forecasting technology, the threat of natural disasters is not totally predictable. Predictability, however, still will not guarantee avoidability, thus adequate time to react…

Floods are one of nature's most catastrophic calamities which cause irreversible and immense damage to human life, agriculture, infrastructure and socio-economic system. Several studies on flood catastrophe management and flood forecasting…

Wildfire evacuation behavior is highly variable and influenced by complex interactions among household resources, preparedness, and situational cues. Using a large-scale MTurk survey of residents in California, Colorado, and Oregon, this…

Proactive evacuation traffic management largely depends on real-time monitoring and prediction of traffic flow at a high spatiotemporal resolution. However, evacuation traffic prediction is challenging due to the uncertainties caused by…

Accurate cyclone forecasting is essential for minimizing loss of life, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. Traditional numerical weather prediction models, though effective, are computationally intensive and prone to error due…

Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…