相关论文: Understanding the complex dynamics of climate chan…
Quantitative forecasting of average rainfall into the next season remains highly challenging, but in some favourable isolated cases may be possible with a series of relatively simple steps. We chose to explore predictions of austral…
North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), as used in estimating the PDO, are reanalyzed using state-space decomposition and subspace identification techniques. The reanalysis presents a very different picture of SST in this region. The…
Climate change and increases in drought conditions affect the lives of many and are closely tied to global agricultural output and livestock production. This research presents a novel approach utilizing machine learning frameworks for…
In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…
The challenge in predicting sub-regional climate within the Indian monsoon region is exacerbated by its increasing variability in a warming world. While exploring the seasonal predictability of rainfall over the state of Tamil Nadu in…
The present study examined a multi-year reanalysis dataset (ERA5-Land) including numerous drought events across the Iberian Peninsula, with a specific emphasis on the 2005 episode. The mechanisms underlying the transition from…
Complex systems span multiple spatial and temporal scales, making their dynamics challenging to understand and predict. This challenge is especially daunting when one wants to study localized and/or rare events. Advances in dynamical…
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) can reduce human suffering by predicting disastrous precipitation in time. A commonly-used NWP in the world is the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts (EC). However, it is necessary to…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent interannual climate variability in the tropics and exhibits diverse features in spatiotemporal patterns. In this paper, a simple multiscale intermediate coupled stochastic model is…
Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…
The diurnal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) may play an important role for cloud organization above the tropical ocean, with implications for precipitation extremes, storminess, and climate sensitivity. Recent cloud-resolving…
The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), launched in 2010 as part of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) program, represents a methodological transition in heliophysics: from identifying discrete solar events to characterizing the continuously…
Drought is a costly natural hazard, many aspects of which remain poorly understood. It has many contributory factors, driving its outset, duration, and severity, including land surface, anthropogenic activities, and, most importantly,…
Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…
AI data-driven models (Graphcast, Pangu Weather, Fourcastnet, and SFNO) are explored for storyline-based climate attribution due to their short inference times, which can accelerate the number of events studied, and provide real time…
Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost.…
Drought has become a critical global threat with significant societal impact. Existing drought monitoring solutions primarily focus on assessing drought severity using quantitative measurements, overlooking the diverse societal impact of…
Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns,…
Studying the response of a climate system to perturbations has practical significance. Standard methods in computing the trajectory-wise deviation caused by perturbations may suffer from the chaotic nature that makes the model error…
Drought poses a pervasive environmental challenge in Bangladesh, impacting agriculture, socio-economic stability, and food security due to its unique geographic and anthropogenic vulnerabilities. Traditional drought indices, such as the…