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Moments when a time series changes its behavior are called change points. Occurrence of change point implies that the state of the system is altered and its timely detection might help to prevent unwanted consequences. In this paper, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-10 Mikhail Hushchyn , Kenenbek Arzymatov , Denis Derkach

Transformer-based models have greatly pushed the boundaries of time series forecasting recently. Existing methods typically encode time series data into $\textit{patches}$ using one or a fixed set of patch lengths. This, however, could…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-09 Linfeng Du , Ji Xin , Alex Labach , Saba Zuberi , Maksims Volkovs , Rahul G. Krishnan

Deep time series forecasting has emerged as a rapidly growing field in recent years. Despite the exponential growth of community interests, progress on standard benchmarks is often limited to marginal improvements. A common consensus of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-05 Yuxuan Wang , Haixu Wu , Yuezhou Ma , Yuchen Fang , Ziyi Zhang , Yong Liu , Shiyu Wang , Zhou Ye , Yang Xiang , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Particle accelerators are complex facilities that produce large amounts of structured data and have clear optimization goals as well as precisely defined control requirements. As such they are naturally amenable to data-driven research…

加速器物理 · 物理学 2023-03-01 Sichen Li , Andreas Adelmann

Time series forecasting is an important yet challenging task. Though deep learning methods have recently been developed to give superior forecasting results, it is crucial to improve the interpretability of time series models. Previous…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-12-18 Qingyi Pan , Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu

Time series forecasting is critical for many applications, where deep learning-based point prediction models have demonstrated strong performance. However, in practical scenarios, there is also a need to quantify predictive uncertainty…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-14 Xiannan Huang , Shuhan Qiu

An increasing body of research focuses on using neural networks to model time series. A common assumption in training neural networks via maximum likelihood estimation on time series is that the errors across time steps are uncorrelated.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-12 Fan-Keng Sun , Christopher I. Lang , Duane S. Boning

Time series forecasting is one of the most active research topics. Machine learning methods have been increasingly adopted to solve these predictive tasks. However, in a recent work, these were shown to systematically present a lower…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-10-01 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Carlos Soares

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-12-17 Xixi Li , Fotios Petropoulos , Yanfei Kang

Forecasting models that are trained across sets of many time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), have shown recently promising results in forecasting competitions and real-world applications, outperforming many…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-08-07 Kasun Bandara , Hansika Hewamalage , Yuan-Hao Liu , Yanfei Kang , Christoph Bergmeir

Time series data are often corrupted by outliers or other kinds of anomalies. Identifying the anomalous points can be a goal on its own (anomaly detection), or a means to improving performance of other time series tasks (e.g. forecasting).…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-30 François-Xavier Aubet , Daniel Zügner , Jan Gasthaus

Machine learning models can effectively forecast dynamical systems from time-series data, but they typically require large amounts of past data, making forecasting particularly challenging for systems with limited history. To overcome this,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-01 Declan A. Norton , Edward Ott , Andrew Pomerance , Brian Hunt , Michelle Girvan

Research on long-term time series prediction has primarily relied on Transformer and MLP models, while the potential of convolutional networks in this domain remains underexplored. To address this, we propose a novel multi-scale time series…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-03 Chenghan Li , Mingchen Li , Yipu Liao , Ruisheng Diao

Time-series forecasting plays an important role in many real-world scenarios, such as equipment life cycle forecasting, weather forecasting, and traffic flow forecasting. It can be observed from recent research that a variety of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-14 Benhan Li , Shengdong Du , Tianrui Li , Jie Hu , Zhen Jia

Time series prediction is an important problem in machine learning. Previous methods for time series prediction did not involve additional information. With a lot of dynamic knowledge graphs available, we can use this additional information…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-07-14 Sankalp Garg , Navodita Sharma , Woojeong Jin , Xiang Ren

Time series forecasting has witnessed significant progress with deep learning. While prevailing approaches enhance forecasting performance by modifying architectures or introducing novel enhancement strategies, they often fail to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-31 Haonan Yang , Jianchao Tang , Zhuo Li

Multivariate time series forecasting focuses on predicting future values based on historical context. State-of-the-art sequence-to-sequence models rely on neural attention between timesteps, which allows for temporal learning but fails to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-21 Jake Grigsby , Zhe Wang , Nam Nguyen , Yanjun Qi

Prediction for high dimensional time series is a challenging task due to the curse of dimensionality problem. Classical parametric models like ARIMA or VAR require strong modeling assumptions and time stationarity and are often…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-12-16 Nikita Puchkin , Aleksandr Timofeev , Vladimir Spokoiny

Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-25 Tsung-Yu Hsieh , Suhang Wang , Yiwei Sun , Vasant Honavar

There are many time series in the literature with high dimension yet limited sample sizes, such as macroeconomic variables, and it is almost impossible to obtain efficient estimation and accurate prediction by using the corresponding…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-30 Yuchang Lin , Qianqian Zhu , Guodong Li