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Changepoint localization aims to provide confidence sets for a changepoint (if one exists). Existing methods either relying on strong parametric assumptions or providing only asymptotic guarantees or focusing on a particular kind of…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-02-18 Swapnaneel Bhattacharyya , Aaditya Ramdas

Randomization testing is a fundamental method in statistics, enabling inferential tasks such as testing for (conditional) independence of random variables, constructing confidence intervals in semiparametric location models, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-21 Yash Nair , Lucas Janson

Weighting the p-values is a well-established strategy that improves the power of multiple testing procedures while dealing with heterogeneous data. However, how to achieve this task in an optimal way is rarely considered in the literature.…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-03-22 Guillermo Durand

Conformal prediction methods provide statistically rigorous marginal coverage guarantees for machine learning models, but such guarantees fail to account for algorithmic biases, thereby undermining fairness and trust. This paper introduces…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-13 Senrong Xu , Yanke Zhou , Yuhao Tan , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

For numerous parameter and state estimation problems, assimilating new data as they become available can help produce accurate and fast inference of unknown quantities. While most existing algorithms for solving those kind of ill-posed…

数值分析 · 数学 2022-07-28 Neil K. Chada , Marco A. Iglesias , Shuai Lu , Frank Werner

Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

This paper introduces the $f$-sensitivity model, a new sensitivity model that characterizes the violation of unconfoundedness in causal inference. It assumes the selection bias due to unmeasured confounding is bounded "on average"; compared…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-07 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren , Zhengyuan Zhou

Anomaly detection plays a crucial role in industrial settings, particularly in maintaining the reliability and optimal performance of cooling systems. Traditional anomaly detection methods often face challenges in handling diverse data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-26 Sarala Naidu , Ning Xiong

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage. However, recent studies have shown that integrating confidence calibration with CP can lead to a degradation in efficiency. In this…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-25 Rui Luo , Nicolo Colombo

Most deep anomaly detection models are based on learning normality from datasets due to the difficulty of defining abnormality by its diverse and inconsistent nature. Therefore, it has been a common practice to learn normality under the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-19 Minkyung Kim , Jongmin Yu , Junsik Kim , Tae-Hyun Oh , Jun Kyun Choi

Replicability is central to scientific progress, and the partial conjunction (PC) hypothesis testing framework provides an objective tool to quantify it across disciplines. Existing PC methods assume independent studies. Yet many modern…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-30 Monitirtha Dey , Trambak Banerjee , Prajamitra Bhuyan , Arunabha Majumdar

Verifying that a statistically significant result is scientifically meaningful is not only good scientific practice, it is a natural way to control the Type I error rate. Here we introduce a novel extension of the p-value - a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-07-04 Jeffrey D. Blume , Lucy DAgostino McGowan , William D. Dupont , Robert A. Greevy

Considering the case where the response variable is a categorical variable and the predictor is a random function, two novel functional sufficient dimensional reduction (FSDR) methods are proposed based on mutual information and square loss…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-28 Xinyu Li , Jianjun Xu , Wenquan Cui , Haoyang Cheng

When validated neural networks (NNs) are pruned (and retrained) before deployment, it is desirable to prove that the new NN behaves equivalently to the (original) reference NN. To this end, our paper revisits the idea of differential…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-14 Samuel Teuber , Philipp Kern , Marvin Janzen , Bernhard Beckert

Background and objective: Uncertainty quantification is a pivotal field that contributes to realizing reliable and robust systems. It becomes instrumental in fortifying safe decisions by providing complementary information, particularly…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-03-19 Jamil Fayyad , Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-27 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Out of the participants in a randomized experiment with anticipated heterogeneous treatment effects, is it possible to identify which subjects have a positive treatment effect? While subgroup analysis has received attention, claims about…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-14 Boyan Duan , Larry Wasserman , Aaditya Ramdas

The requirement of uncertainty quantification for anomaly detection systems has become increasingly important. In this context, effectively controlling Type I error rates ($\alpha$) without compromising the statistical power ($1-\beta$) of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-21 Oliver Hennhöfer , Christine Preisach

False discovery rate (FDR) control is a popular approach for maintaining the integrity of statistical analyses, especially in high-dimensional data settings, where multiple comparisons increase the risk of false positives. FDR control has…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-03-03 Fabian Scheidt , Jasin Machkour , Michael Muma