相关论文: Extreme rainfall propagation within Boreal Summer …

The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) is a pronounced mode of tropical variability. Here, we identify two types of BSISO events, one which propagates northward over South Asia (SA) from the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), and…

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) are dominant drivers of boreal summer precipitation variability in tropical and subtropical regions. Although the regional precipitation dynamics in these two regions have…

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…

The ocean heat content variability in the South China Sea (SCS) plays a pivotal role in regional climate and extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones. Using high-resolution ocean reanalysis data, we show that the SCS exhibits a…

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) and pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a period of 2-7 years. As the largest mode of interannual variability on Earth, ENSO shapes…

Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximal warming,…

Extreme rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon can be destructive and deadly. Although El Ni\~no/ events in the equatorial Pacific make dry days and whole summers more likely throughout India, their influence on daily extremes is not well…

The sub-seasonal and synoptic-scale variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall are controlled primarily by monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISO) and low pressure systems (LPS), respectively. The positive and negative phases of…

The coupled atmosphere-ocean variability of the Indo-Pacific on interannual to multidecadal timescales is investigated in a millennial control run of CCSM4 and in observations using a family of modes recovered in Part~I of this work from…

The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase…

This study examines the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Indonesian precipitation during the extended boreal summer (May to September). The MJO is one of the dominant intraseasonal variabilities that influence the extreme…

We analyse Indian summer monsoon (ISM) seasonal reforecasts by CFSv2 model, initiated from January (4-month lead time, L4) through May (0-month lead time, L0) initial conditions (ICs), to examine the cause for highest all-India ISM rainfall…

The seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO), as well as the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) that strongly modulate MISO, is important to the country for water and crop…

Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources…

This article analyzes SST remote forcing on the interannual variability of Sahel summer (June-September) moderate (below 75th percentile) and heavy (above 75th percentile) daily precipitation events during the period 1981-2016. Evidence is…

Recent debates over the changing correlation between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have raised inconclusive claims about the stability of the ENSO-Monsoon relationship (EMR) and ISMR…

We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model…

Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…

The South and East Asian summer monsoons are globally significant meteorological features, creating a strongly seasonal pattern of precipitation. The stability of the monsoon is of extreme importance for a vast range of ecosystems and for…