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Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Marcus Hutter

Humans learn from the occurrence of events in a different place and time to predict similar trajectories of events. We define Loosely Decoupled Timeseries (LDT) phenomena as two or more events that could happen in different places and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-08-29 Christian Manasseh , Razvan Veliche , Jared Bennett , Hamilton Clouse

With the availability of massive amounts of data from electronic health records and registry databases, incorporating time-varying patient information to improve risk prediction has attracted great attention. To exploit the growing amount…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-08-29 Yifei Sun , Sy Han Chiou , Colin O. Wu , Meghan McGarry , Chiung-Yu Huang

Time series data is a prevalent form of data found in various fields. It consists of a series of measurements taken over time. Forecasting is a crucial application of time series models, where future values are predicted based on historical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-23 Sahar Koohfar , Wubeshet Woldemariam

During the last two decades, a number of countries or cities established heat-health warning systems in order to alert public health authorities when some heat indicator exceeds a predetermined threshold. Different methods were considered…

A full parametric and linear specification may be insufficient to capture complicated patterns in studies exploring complex features, such as those investigating age-related changes in brain functional abilities. Alternatively, a partially…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-07 Jia Liang , Shuo Chen , Peter Kochunov , L Elliot Hong , Chixiang Chen

Solving Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) is ubiquitous in science and engineering. Computational complexity and difficulty in writing numerical solvers has motivated the development of data-driven machine learning techniques to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-25 Cooper Lorsung , Amir Barati Farimani

Recently in the field of unsupervised representation learning, strong identifiability results for disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established by exploiting certain side information, such as class labels, in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-26 Weiran Yao , Guangyi Chen , Kun Zhang

Decision trees and random forest remain highly competitive for classification on medium-sized, standard datasets due to their robustness, minimal preprocessing requirements, and interpretability. However, a single tree suffers from high…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-02 Cencheng Shen , Yuexiao Dong , Carey E. Priebe

The standard regression tree method applied to observations within clusters poses both methodological and implementation challenges. Effectively leveraging these data requires methods that account for both individual-level and sample-level…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-05 Jeremiah Allis , Xin Jin , Riddhi Ghosh

Probabilistic modeling is one of the foundations of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence. In this paper, we propose a novel type of probabilistic models named latent dependency forest models (LDFMs). A LDFM models the…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2016-11-22 Shanbo Chu , Yong Jiang , Kewei Tu

Low-order functional ANOVA (fANOVA) models have been rediscovered in the machine learning (ML) community under the guise of inherently interpretable machine learning. Explainable Boosting Machines or EBM (Lou et al. 2013) and GAMI-Net (Yang…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-12-19 Linwei Hu , Jie Chen , Vijayan N. Nair

We consider the problem of sparse variable selection on high dimension heterogeneous data sets, which has been taking on renewed interest recently due to the growth of biological and medical data sets with complex, non-i.i.d. structures and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-22 Hui Liu , Xiang Liu , Jing Diao , Wenting Ye , Xueling Liu , Dehui Wei

Latent Gaussian models and boosting are widely used techniques in statistics and machine learning. Tree-boosting shows excellent prediction accuracy on many data sets, but potential drawbacks are that it assumes conditional independence of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-08-24 Fabio Sigrist

To obtain a probabilistic model for a dependent variable based on some set of explanatory variables, a distributional approach is often adopted where the parameters of the distribution are linked to regressors. In many classical models this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-01-14 Lisa Schlosser , Torsten Hothorn , Reto Stauffer , Achim Zeileis

Decision trees are widely used for non-linear modeling, as they capture interactions between predictors while producing inherently interpretable models. Despite their popularity, performing inference on the non-linear fit remains largely…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Soham Bakshi , Snigdha Panigrahi

In traditional logistic regression models, the link function is often assumed to be linear and continuous in predictors. Here, we consider a threshold model that all continuous features are discretized into ordinal levels, which further…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-18 Yinan Lin , Wen Zhou , Zhi Geng , Gexin Xiao , Jianxin Yin

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-04-01 Stephan Rasp , Sebastian Lerch

We introduce Interleaved Gibbs Diffusion (IGD), a novel generative modeling framework for discrete-continuous data, focusing on problems with important, implicit and unspecified constraints in the data. Most prior works on discrete and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-04 Gautham Govind Anil , Sachin Yadav , Dheeraj Nagaraj , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Prateek Jain

Many of the distributed localization algorithms are based on relaxed optimization formulations of the localization problem. These algorithms commonly rely on first-order optimization methods, and hence may require many iterations or…

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