相关论文: Using a Penalized Likelihood to Detect Mortality D…

This paper introduces a new version of the smoothly trimmed mean with a more general version of weights, which can be used as an alternative to the classical trimmed mean. We derive its asymptotic variance and to further investigate its…

This work is concern with testing the low-dimensional parameters of interest with divergent dimensional data and variable selection for the rest under the sparse case. A consistent test via the partial penalized likelihood approach, called…

Penalized spline estimation with discrete difference penalties (P-splines) is a popular estimation method for semiparametric models, but the classical least-squares estimator is highly sensitive to deviations from its ideal model…

Many of the data, particularly in medicine and disease mapping are count. Indeed, the under or overdispersion problem in count data distrusts the performance of the classical Poisson model. For taking into account this problem, in this…

In this paper, in order to test whether changes have occurred in a nonlinear parametric regression, we propose a nonparametric method based on the empirical likelihood. Firstly, we test the null hypothesis of no-change against the…

This paper describes a new method, HMM gauge likelihood analysis, or GLA, of detecting anomalies in discrete time series using Hidden Markov Models and clustering. At the center of the method lies the comparison of subsequences. To achieve…

We consider novelty detection in time series with unknown and nonparametric probability structures. A deep learning approach is proposed to causally extract an innovations sequence consisting of novelty samples statistically independent of…

We propose a new likelihood-based approach for estimation, inference and variable selection for parametric cure regression models in time-to-event analysis under random right-censoring. In this context, it often happens that some subjects…

This paper introduces a flexible regularization approach that reduces point estimation risk of group means stemming from e.g. categorical regressors, (quasi-)experimental data or panel data models. The loss function is penalized by adding…

In recent years, differentiable penalized likelihood methods have gained popularity, optimizing the causal structure by maximizing its likelihood with respect to the data. However, recent research has shown that errors in likelihood…

Continuous-time multi-state survival models can be used to describe health-related processes over time. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions between the living states, the likelihood is constructed using transition…

We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…

In this paper, we introduce a new four-parameter generalized version of the Gompertz model which is called Beta-Gompertz (BG) distribution. It includes some well-known lifetime distributions such as beta-exponential and generalized Gompertz…

Estimator selection has become a crucial issue in non parametric estimation. Two widely used methods are penalized empirical risk minimization (such as penalized log-likelihood estimation) or pairwise comparison (such as Lepski's method).…

This paper explores generalised probabilistic modelling and uncertainty estimation in comparative LLM-as-a-judge frameworks. We show that existing Product-of-Experts methods are specific cases of a broader framework, enabling diverse…

Gamma process has been extensively used to model monotone degradation data. Statistical inference for the gamma process is difficult due to the complex parameter structure involved in the likelihood function. In this paper, we derive a…

In a longitudinal study, measures of key variables might be incomplete or partially recorded due to drop-out, loss to follow-up, or early termination of the study occurring before the advent of the event of interest. In this paper, we focus…

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

Automated fault localization is an important issue in model validation and verification. It helps the end users in analyzing the origin of failure. In this work, we show the early experiments with probabilistic analysis approaches in fault…

Firth-type logistic regression has become a standard approach for the analysis of binary outcomes with small samples. Whereas it reduces the bias in maximum likelihood estimates of coefficients, bias towards 1/2 is introduced in the…