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A method for sequential Bayesian inference of the static parameters of a dynamic state space model is proposed. The method is based on the observation that many dynamic state space models have a relatively small number of static parameters…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-06-28 Arnab Bhattacharya , Simon Wilson

The dynamics of biological systems, from proteins to cells to organisms, is complex and stochastic. To decipher their physical laws, we need to bridge between experimental observations and theoretical modeling. Thanks to progress in…

软凝聚态物质 · 物理学 2024-06-05 Pierre Ronceray

Bayesian analysis is a framework for parameter estimation that applies even in uncertainty regimes where the commonly used local (frequentist) analysis based on the Cram\'er-Rao bound is not well defined. In particular, it applies when no…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-03-17 Simon Morelli , Ayaka Usui , Elizabeth Agudelo , Nicolai Friis

A systematic Bayesian framework is developed for physics constrained parameter inference ofstochastic differential equations (SDE) from partial observations. The physical constraints arederived for stochastic climate models but are…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2016-11-25 Daniel Peavoy , Christian L. E. Franzke , Gareth O. Roberts

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the modes of an observed non-stationary mixture signal in the presence of an arbitrary distributed noise. A novel Bayesian model is introduced to estimate the model parameters from the…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-03-31 Quentin Legros , Dominique Fourer , Sylvain Meignen , Marcelo A. Colominas

We present approximate analytical method of analysis of stationary states of nonlinear quantum systems with the noise. As an example we consider quantum nonlinear oscillator excited by fluctuating force and found parameter regions with more…

光学 · 物理学 2015-01-06 Igor Protsenko , Evgenii Protsenko , Alexander Uskov

We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-02-13 Marcel Hirt , Petros Dellaportas

The measurement of data over time and/or space is of utmost importance in a wide range of domains from engineering to physics. Devices that perform these measurements therefore need to be extremely precise to obtain correct system…

Inertial effects in fluctuations of the work to sustain a system in a nonequilibrium steady state are discussed for a dragged massive Brownian particle model using a path integral approach. We calculate the work distribution function in the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2007-12-12 Tooru Taniguchi , E. G. D. Cohen

The existence and uniqueness of a steady state for nonequilibrium systems (NESS) is a fundamental subject and a main theme of research in statistical mechanics for decades. For Gaussian systems, such as a chain of harmonic oscillators…

统计力学 · 物理学 2015-10-13 J. -T. Hsiang , B. L. Hu

We present the numerical estimation of noise parameter induced in the dynamics of the variables by random particle interactions involved in the stochastic chemical oscillator and use it as order parameter to detect the transition from…

计算物理 · 物理学 2011-09-02 R. K. Brojen Singh

We consider Bayesian inverse problems arising in data assimilation for dynamical systems governed by partial and stochastic partial differential equations. The space-time dependent field is inferred jointly with static parameters of the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-03-20 Baptiste Simandoux , Nikolas Kantas , Dan Crisan

The present paper proposes a novel Bayesian, computational strategy in the context of model-based inverse problems in elastostatics. On one hand we attempt to provide probabilistic estimates of the material properties and their spatial…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-12-21 P. S. Koutsourelakis

We develop a novel data-driven approach to the inverse problem of classical statistical mechanics: given experimental data on the collective motion of a classical many-body system, how does one characterise the free energy landscape of that…

统计力学 · 物理学 2022-03-01 Peter Yatsyshin , Serafim Kalliadasis , Andrew B. Duncan

In this paper we focus on the parameter estimation of dynamic load models with stochastic terms, in particular, load models where protection settings are uncertain, such as in aggregated air conditioning units. We show how the uncertainty…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-04-30 Daniel Adrian Maldonado , Vishwas Rao , Mihai Anitescu , Vivak Patel

We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2022-10-18 Philippe Bisaillon , Brandon Robinson , Mohammad Khalil , Chris L. Pettit , Dominique Poirel , Abhijit Sarkar

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-18 Xuhui Fan , Edwin V. Bonilla , Terence J. O'Kane , Scott A. Sisson

We analyze the dynamics of an algorithm for approximate inference with large Gaussian latent variable models in a student-teacher scenario. To model nontrivial dependencies between the latent variables, we assume random covariance matrices…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-08-26 Burak Çakmak , Manfred Opper

Bayesian inference is a widely used technique for real-time characterization of quantum systems. It excels in experimental characterization in the low data regime, and when the measurements have degrees of freedom. A decisive factor for its…

量子物理 · 物理学 2025-07-10 Alexandra Ramôa , Raffaele Santagati , Nathan Wiebe

We consider how to characterize the dynamics of a quantum system from a restricted set of initial states and measurements using Bayesian analysis. Previous work has shown that Hamiltonian systems can be well estimated from analysis of noisy…

量子物理 · 物理学 2014-03-04 S. G. Schirmer , D. K. L. Oi