相关论文: Quantile Risk Control: A Flexible Framework for Bo…

We develop quantile regression models in order to derive risk margin and to evaluate capital in non-life insurance applications. By utilizing the entire range of conditional quantile functions, especially higher quantile levels, we detail…

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

Many real-life applications involve simultaneously forecasting multiple time series that are hierarchically related via aggregation or disaggregation operations. For instance, commercial organizations often want to forecast inventories…

Science and technology have a growing need for effective mechanisms that ensure reliable, controlled performance from black-box machine learning algorithms. These performance guarantees should ideally hold conditionally on the input-that is…

A general class of models is proposed that is able to estimate the whole predictive distribution of a dependent variable $Y$ given a vector of explanatory variables $\xb$. The models exploit that the strength of explanatory variables to…

This paper introduces the notion of quantitative resilience of a control system. Following prior work, we study systems enduring a loss of control authority over some of their actuators. Such a malfunction results in actuators producing…

Several studies have focused on the Realized Range Volatility, an estimator of the quadratic variation of financial prices, taking into account the impact of microstructure noise and jumps. However, none has considered direct modeling and…

Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…

Recent methods in quantile regression have adopted a classification perspective to handle challenges posed by heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed data by quantizing outputs into fixed bins. Although these regression-as-classification…

Based on existing ideas in the field of imprecise probabilities, we present a new approach for assessing the reliability of the individual predictions of a generative probabilistic classifier. We call this approach robustness…

We propose a novel framework for fitting additive quantile regression models, which provides well calibrated inference about the conditional quantiles and fast automatic estimation of the smoothing parameters, for model structures as…

This paper investigates the identification of quantiles and quantile regression parameters when observations are set valued. We define the identification set of quantiles of random sets in a way that extends the definition of quantiles for…

When applying differential privacy to sensitive data, we can often improve performance using external information such as other sensitive data, public data, or human priors. We propose to use the learning-augmented algorithms (or algorithms…

While improving prediction accuracy has been the focus of machine learning in recent years, this alone does not suffice for reliable decision-making. Deploying learning systems in consequential settings also requires calibrating and…

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

This paper discusses desirable properties of forecasting models in production systems. It then develops a family of models which are designed to satisfy these properties: highly customizable to capture complex patterns; accommodates a large…

A set of probabilities along with corresponding quantiles are often used to define predictive distributions or probabilistic forecasts. These quantile predictions offer easily interpreted uncertainty of an event, and quantiles are generally…

We propose a nonparametric quantile regression method using deep neural networks with a rectified linear unit penalty function to avoid quantile crossing. This penalty function is computationally feasible for enforcing non-crossing…

Due to the dynamic nature of financial markets, maintaining models that produce precise predictions over time is difficult. Often the goal isn't just point prediction but determining uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty, especially the…

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…