相关论文: Incorporating Polar Field Data for Improved Solar …

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…

Efficient prediction of solar flares relies on parameters that quantify the eruptive capability of solar active regions. Several such quantitative predictors have been proposed in the literature, inferred mostly from photospheric…

We present a case study of solar flare forecasting by means of metadata feature time series, by treating it as a prominent class-imbalance and temporally coherent problem. Taking full advantage of pre-flare time series in solar active…

Solar flare prediction plays an important role in understanding and forecasting space weather. The main goal of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), one of the instruments on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, is to study the origin…

Current solar flare predictions often lack precise quantification of their reliability, resulting in frequent false alarms, particularly when dealing with datasets skewed towards extreme events. To improve the trustworthiness of space…

Solar flares are defined as outbursts on the surface of the Sun. They occur when energy accumulated in magnetic fields enclosing solar active regions (ARs) is abruptly expelled. Solar flares and associated coronal mass ejections are sources…

Flares are a well-studied aspect of the Sun's magnetic activity. Detecting and classifying solar flares can inform the analysis of contamination caused by stellar flares in exoplanet transmission spectra. In this paper, we present a…

We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…

In this dataset we provide a comprehensive collection of magnetograms (images quantifying the strength of the magnetic field) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The dataset…

This paper presents a post hoc analysis of a deep learning-based full-disk solar flare prediction model. We used hourly full-disk line-of-sight magnetogram images and selected binary prediction mode to predict the occurrence of…

We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…

Prediction of solar flares is an important task in solar physics. The occurrence of solar flares is highly dependent on the structure and the topology of solar magnetic fields. A new method for predicting large (M and X class) flares is…

Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…

In the present work, we collect solar irradiance and atmospheric condition data from several products, obtained from both numerical models (ERA5 and NORA3) and satellite observations (CMSAF-SARAH3). We then train simple supervised Machine…

High energy solar flares and coronal mass ejections have the potential to destroy Earth's ground and satellite infrastructures, causing trillions of dollars in damage and mass human suffering. Destruction of these critical systems would…

The prediction of solar flares is of practical and scientific interest; however, many machine learning methods used for this prediction task do not provide the physical explanations behind a model's performance. We made use of two recently…

Solar flares are intense eruptive events caused by the rapid release of magnetic energy, often impacting Earth's space environment through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Accurate flare prediction is critical for space…

Indications are presented for a significant connection between the relative motion of the planets and the appearance of energetic solar flares. Based on the records of the last four decades, the analysis highlights remarkable features and a…

Ahead-of-time forecasting of the output power of power plants is essential for the stability of the electricity grid and ensuring uninterrupted service. However, forecasting renewable energy sources is difficult due to the chaotic behavior…

Knowing the behavior of solar radiation at a geographic location is essential for the use of energy from the sun using photovoltaic systems; however, the number of stations for measuring meteorological parameters and for determining the…