相关论文: Comparison of physics-based prediction models of s…
Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…
The concept of surface-flux transport (SFT) is commonly used in evolving models of the large-scale solar surface magnetic field. These photospheric models are used to determine the large-scale structure of the overlying coronal magnetic…
Aims. We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods. We measure the axial dipole moment using…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of…
Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Surface flux transport models can be…
The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…
The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
The choice of free parameters in surface flux transport (SFT) models describing the evolution of the large-scale poloidal magnetic field of the Sun is critical for the correct reproduction of the polar magnetic flux built up during a solar…
The large-scale magnetic field observed at the solar surface is produced by the interior dynamo process. Whether this surface field also provides the dominant seed for the subsequent dynamo cycle, however, remains controversial, with…
Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows well…
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence…
Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a…
The surface flux transport (SFT) model of solar magnetic fields involves empirically well-constrained velocity and magnetic fields. The basic evolution of the Sun's large-scale surface magnetic field is well described by this model. The…
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…
The multi-scale structure of the solar surface magnetic field is essential for understanding both the Sun's internal dynamo processes and its external magnetic activity. The surface flux transport (SFT) model has been successful in…
The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series…
The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…