相关论文: An Extreme-Adaptive Time Series Prediction Model B…

In recent years, deep learning techniques have outperformed traditional models in many machine learning tasks. Deep neural networks have successfully been applied to address time series forecasting problems, which is a very important topic…

This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…

Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…

With the advent of Big Data, nowadays in many applications databases containing large quantities of similar time series are available. Forecasting time series in these domains with traditional univariate forecasting procedures leaves great…

The problem of forecasting weather has been scientifically studied for centuries due to its high impact on human lives, transportation, food production and energy management, among others. Current operational forecasting models are based on…

Detecting extreme events in large datasets is a major challenge in climate science research. Current algorithms for extreme event detection are build upon human expertise in defining events based on subjective thresholds of relevant…

Risk assessment for extreme events requires accurate estimation of high quantiles that go beyond the range of historical observations. When the risk depends on the values of observed predictors, regression techniques are used to interpolate…

The prediction of time series is a challenging task relevant in such diverse applications as analyzing financial data, forecasting flow dynamics or understanding biological processes. Especially chaotic time series that depend on a long…

The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture…

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…

The proliferation of intermittent distributed renewable energy sources (RES) in modern power systems has fundamentally compromised the reliability and accuracy of deterministic net load forecasting. Generative models, particularly diffusion…

Accurate and timely estimation of precipitation is critical for issuing hazard warnings (e.g., for flash floods or landslides). Current remotely sensed precipitation products have a few hours of latency, associated with the acquisition and…

We present a machine learning method to predict extreme hydrologic events from spatially and temporally varying hydrological and meteorological data. We used a timestep reduction technique to reduce the computational and memory requirements…

Numerical weather forecasting using high-resolution physical models often requires extensive computational resources on supercomputers, which diminishes their wide usage in most real-life applications. As a remedy, applying deep learning…

Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…

As global climate change intensifies, accurate weather forecasting has become increasingly important, affecting agriculture, energy management, environmental protection, and daily life. This study introduces a hybrid model combining…

Time series models often deal with extreme events and anomalies, both prevalent in real-world datasets. Such models often need to provide careful probabilistic forecasting, which is vital in risk management for extreme events such as…

In the hydrology field, time series forecasting is crucial for efficient water resource management, improving flood and drought control and increasing the safety and quality of life for the general population. However, predicting long-term…