相关论文: Bayesian Causal Forests & the 2022 ACIC Data Chall…

In longitudinal observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios. The g-formula is a useful tool for this analysis.…

Data scarcity is a tremendous challenge in causal effect estimation. In this paper, we propose to exploit additional data sources to facilitate estimating causal effects in the target population. Specifically, we leverage additional source…

We propose novel Bayesian Dynamic Clustering Factor Models (BDCFM) for the analysis of multivariate longitudinal data. BDCFM combines factor models with hidden Markov models to concomitantly perform dimension reduction, clustering, and…

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is…

Bayesian inference can often be sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters of the prior or likelihood, yet defining and quantifying this sensitivity in a principled and computationally feasible way remains challenging in practice.…

We introduce a unified framework for contextual and causal Bayesian optimisation, which aims to design intervention policies maximising the expectation of a target variable. Our approach leverages both observed contextual information and…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

The Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) framework is a recently introduced, general collection of statistical and algorithmic tools for modelling, analysis and inference with discrete-valued time series. The foundation of this development is built…

Identifying predictive factors for an outcome of interest via a multivariable analysis is often difficult when the data set is small. Combining data from different medical centers into a single (larger) database would alleviate this…

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…

We develop a Bayesian tree ensemble model to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in censored survival data with high-dimensional covariates. Instead of imposing sparsity through the tree structure, we place a horseshoe prior directly…

Varying coefficient models have numerous applications in a wide scope of scientific areas. While enjoying nice interpretability, they also allow flexibility in modeling dynamic impacts of the covariates. But, in the new era of big data, it…

We introduce a numerically tractable formulation of Bayesian joint models for longitudinal and survival data. The longitudinal process is modelled using generalised linear mixed models, while the survival process is modelled using a…

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops estimation and inference procedures for multiple treatment…

Causal inference for observational longitudinal studies often requires the accurate estimation of treatment effects on time-to-event outcomes in the presence of time-dependent patient history and time-dependent covariates. To tackle this…

While the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) are powerful tools for model selection in linear regression, they are built on different prior assumptions and thereby apply to different data generation…

The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops new estimation and inference procedures for multiple…

To mitigate unfair and unethical discrimination over sensitive features (e.g., gender, age, or race), fairness testing plays an integral role in engineering systems that leverage AI models to handle tabular data. A key challenge therein is…

Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive…