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Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-12 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Deep neural networks (DNN) are versatile parametric models utilised successfully in a diverse number of tasks and domains. However, they have limitations---particularly from their lack of robustness and over-sensitivity to out of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-01-01 John Mitros , Brian Mac Namee

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer probability distributions for model parameters, enabling uncertainty quantification in predictions. However, they often underperform compared to deterministic neural networks. Utilizing mutual learning…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-04 Cuong Pham , Cuong C. Nguyen , Trung Le , Dinh Phung , Gustavo Carneiro , Thanh-Toan Do

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

End-to-end trained neural networks (NNs) are a compelling approach to autonomous vehicle control because of their ability to learn complex tasks without manual engineering of rule-based decisions. However, challenging road conditions,…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-11-24 Alexander Amini , Ava Soleimany , Sertac Karaman , Daniela Rus

Bayesian neural network (BNN) allows for uncertainty quantification in prediction, offering an advantage over regular neural networks that has not been explored in the differential privacy (DP) framework. We fill this important gap by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-21 Qiyiwen Zhang , Zhiqi Bu , Kan Chen , Qi Long

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-03-20 Luhuan Wu , Sinead Williamson

Objective: Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated promise in automated cardiac magnetic resonance image segmentation. However, when using CNNs in a large real-world dataset, it is important to quantify segmentation…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-01-02 Matthew Ng , Fumin Guo , Labonny Biswas , Steffen E. Petersen , Stefan K. Piechnik , Stefan Neubauer , Graham Wright

Uncertainty quantification in neural networks gained a lot of attention in the past years. The most popular approaches, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), Monte Carlo dropout, and deep ensembles have one thing in common: they are all based on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-06 Sina Däubener , Asja Fischer

We introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) with flow approximated posteriors using multiplicative normalizing flows (MNF) for detailed uncertainty quantification (UQ) at the physics event-level. Our method is capable of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-05 Cristiano Fanelli , James Giroux

Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2021-09-22 Fabian Küppers , Jan Kronenberger , Jonas Schneider , Anselm Haselhoff

We propose a numerical method for discovering unknown parameterized dynamical systems by using observational data of the state variables. Our method is built upon and extends the recent work of discovering unknown dynamical systems, in…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-03-11 Tong Qin , Zhen Chen , John Jakeman , Dongbin Xiu

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainty by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have focused…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-25 Cooper Lorsung

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

Robust estimation for modern portfolio selection on a large set of assets becomes more important due to large deviation of empirical inference on big data. We propose a distributionally robust methodology for high-dimensional mean-variance…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-12 Ruike Wu , Yanrong Yang , Han Lin Shang , Huanjun Zhu

Despite recent advances, sampling-based inference for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) remains a significant challenge in probabilistic deep learning. While sampling-based approaches do not require a variational distribution assumption,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-11 Emanuel Sommer , Jakob Robnik , Giorgi Nozadze , Uros Seljak , David Rügamer

Deep learning (DL) has shown great potential in medical image enhancement problems, such as super-resolution or image synthesis. However, to date, little consideration has been given to uncertainty quantification over the output image. Here…

Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distribution shifts are important goals in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Although Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) allow for uncertainty in the predictions to be assessed,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-23 Michele Caprio , Souradeep Dutta , Kuk Jin Jang , Vivian Lin , Radoslav Ivanov , Oleg Sokolsky , Insup Lee

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become integral to a wide range of scientific and practical applications due to their flexibility and strong predictive performance. Despite their accuracy, however, DNNs frequently exhibit poor calibration,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-12 Sanne Ruijs , Alina Kosiakova , Farrukh Javed

Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are used to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-08-27 Rohitash Chandra , Joshua Simmons