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A learning method is self-certified if it uses all available data to simultaneously learn a predictor and certify its quality with a tight statistical certificate that is valid on unseen data. Recent work has shown that neural network…

We give a new proof of VC bounds where we avoid the use of symmetrization and use a shadow sample of arbitrary size. We also improve on the variance term. This results in better constants, as shown on numerical examples. Moreover our bounds…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Olivier Catoni

We present new excess risk bounds for general unbounded loss functions including log loss and squared loss, where the distribution of the losses may be heavy-tailed. The bounds hold for general estimators, but they are optimized when…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-11-06 Peter D. Grünwald , Nishant A. Mehta

The limit of infinite width allows for substantial simplifications in the analytical study of over-parameterised neural networks. With a suitable random initialisation, an extremely large network exhibits an approximately Gaussian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-14 Eugenio Clerico , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Transfer learning has received a lot of attention in the machine learning community over the last years, and several effective algorithms have been developed. However, relatively little is known about their theoretical properties,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-05-13 Anastasia Pentina , Christoph H. Lampert

We propose an extensive analysis of the behavior of majority votes in binary classification. In particular, we introduce a risk bound for majority votes, called the C-bound, that takes into account the average quality of the voters and…

Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential tilt. We give a decision-theoretic characterization that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Kenichiro McAlinn , Kōsaku Takanashi

We propose a lower bound on the log marginal likelihood of Gaussian process regression models that can be computed without matrix factorisation of the full kernel matrix. We show that approximate maximum likelihood learning of model…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-17 Artem Artemev , David R. Burt , Mark van der Wilk

We propose a general framework for studying adaptive regret bounds in the online learning framework, including model selection bounds and data-dependent bounds. Given a data- or model-dependent bound we ask, "Does there exist some algorithm…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-02-14 Dylan J. Foster , Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

Our goal is to learn control policies for robots that provably generalize well to novel environments given a dataset of example environments. The key technical idea behind our approach is to leverage tools from generalization theory in…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2020-08-27 Anirudha Majumdar , Alec Farid , Anoopkumar Sonar

We study the sequential general online regression, known also as the sequential probability assignments, under logarithmic loss when compared against a broad class of experts. We focus on obtaining tight, often matching, lower and upper…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-02 Changlong Wu , Mohsen Heidari , Ananth Grama , Wojciech Szpankowski

The aim of this paper is to provide several novel upper bounds on the excess risk with a primal focus on classification problems. We suggest two approaches and the obtained bounds are represented via the distribution dependent local…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-03-13 Nikita Zhivotovskiy

Symmetries are known to improve the empirical performance of machine learning models, yet theoretical guarantees explaining these gains remain limited. Prior work has focused mainly on compact group symmetries and often assumes that the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-21 Armin Beck , Peter Ochs

Recent research in robust optimization has shown an overfitting-like phenomenon in which models trained against adversarial attacks exhibit higher robustness on the training set compared to the test set. Although previous work provided…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-24 Zifan Wang , Nan Ding , Tomer Levinboim , Xi Chen , Radu Soricut

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-01-22 Manuel Haussmann , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir

In certain applications involving the solution of a Bayesian inverse problem, it may not be possible or desirable to evaluate the full posterior, e.g. due to the high computational cost of doing so. This problem motivates the use of…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-02-27 Han Cheng Lie , T. J. Sullivan , Aretha Teckentrup

In machine learning, Domain Adaptation (DA) arises when the distribution gen- erating the test (target) data differs from the one generating the learning (source) data. It is well known that DA is an hard task even under strong assumptions,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-12-12 Pascal Germain , Amaury Habrard , François Laviolette , Emilie Morvant

Bayesian deep learning plays an important role especially for its ability evaluating epistemic uncertainty (EU). Due to computational complexity issues, approximation methods such as variational inference (VI) have been used in practice to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-12 Futoshi Futami , Tomoharu Iwata , Naonori Ueda , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

We consider the approximation of a convolution of possibly different probability measures by (compound) Poisson distributions and also by related signed measures of higher order. We present new total variation bounds having a better…

概率论 · 数学 2017-03-08 Bero Roos

Analysing statistical properties of neural networks is a central topic in statistics and machine learning. However, most results in the literature focus on the properties of the neural network minimizing the training error. The goal of this…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-02-04 Laura Tinsi , Arnak S. Dalalyan
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