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Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-10-27 Anna Wigren , Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Lawrence Murray , Fredrik Lindsten

We consider Particle Gibbs (PG) as a tool for Bayesian analysis of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. PG is a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation of the standard Gibbs procedure which uses sequential MC (SMC) importance sampling inside…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-04-18 Oliver Grothe , Tore Selland Kleppe , Roman Liesenfeld

High-dimensional state trajectories of state-space models pose challenges for Bayesian inference. Particle Gibbs (PG) methods have been widely used to sample from the posterior of a state space model. Basically, particle Gibbs is a Particle…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-08-18 Niharika Gauraha

State space models (SSMs) are widely used to describe dynamic systems. However, when the likelihood of the observations is intractable, parameter inference for SSMs cannot be easily carried out using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-21 Zhaoran Hou , Samuel W. K. Wong

We consider the challenge of estimating the model parameters and latent states of general state-space models within a Bayesian framework. We extend the commonly applied particle Gibbs framework by proposing an efficient particle generation…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-01-08 Mary Llewellyn , Ruth King , Víctor Elvira , Gordon Ross

Bayesian feature allocation models are a popular tool for modelling data with a combinatorial latent structure. Exact inference in these models is generally intractable and so practitioners typically apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-01-28 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Andrew Roth

P-splines provide a flexible setting for modeling nonlinear model components based on a discretized penalty structure with a relatively simple computational backbone. Under a Bayesian inferential framework based on Markov chain Monte Carlo,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-03 Oswaldo Gressani , Paul H. C. Eilers

The particle Gibbs sampler is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from the full posterior distribution of a state-space model. It does so by executing Gibbs sampling steps on an extended target distribution defined on the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-07-29 Nicolas Chopin , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Marginalization of latent variables or nuisance parameters is a fundamental aspect of Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification. In this work, we focus on scalable marginalization of latent variables in modeling correlated data,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-02-13 Mengyang Gu , Xubo Liu , Xinyi Fang , Sui Tang

The Partially Collapsed Gibbs (PCG) sampler offers a new strategy for improving the convergence of a Gibbs sampler. PCG achieves faster convergence by reducing the conditioning in some of the draws of its parent Gibbs sampler. Although this…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-02-19 David A. van Dyk , Xiyun Jiao

We propose a novel blocked version of the continuous-time bouncy particle sampler of [Bouchard-C\^ot\'e et al., 2018] which is applicable to any differentiable probability density. This alternative implementation is motivated by blocked…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-07-12 Jacob Vorstrup Goldman , Sumeetpal Sidhu Singh

A state-space model is a time-series model that has an unobserved latent process from which we take noisy measurements over time. The observations are conditionally independent given the latent process and the latent process itself is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-07 Paul Fearnhead , Chris Sherlock

This article addresses the problem of efficient Bayesian inference in dynamic systems using particle methods and makes a number of contributions. First, we develop a correlated pseudo-marginal (CPM) approach for Bayesian inference in state…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-12-22 P. Choppala , D. Gunawan , J. Chen , M. -N. Tran , R. Kohn

Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-05-10 David Gunawan , Pratiti Chatterjee , Robert Kohn

Gaussian-process state-space models (GP-SSMs) provide a flexible nonparametric alternative for modeling time-series dynamics that are nonlinear or difficult to specify parametrically. While the Kalman filter is effective for linear-Gaussian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-02 Genshiro Kitagawa

A fundamental task in machine learning and related fields is to perform inference on Bayesian networks. Since exact inference takes exponential time in general, a variety of approximate methods are used. Gibbs sampling is one of the most…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-11-23 Daniel Seita , Haoyu Chen , John Canny

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-09-30 Eduardo F. Mendes , Christopher K. Carter , David Gunawan , Robert Kohn

Infinite Hidden Markov Models (iHMM's) are an attractive, nonparametric generalization of the classical Hidden Markov Model which can automatically infer the number of hidden states in the system. However, due to the infinite-dimensional…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-06-10 Nilesh Tripuraneni , Shane Gu , Hong Ge , Zoubin Ghahramani

Gibbs sampling is a widely popular Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that can be used to analyze intractable posterior distributions associated with Bayesian hierarchical models. There are two standard versions of the Gibbs sampler: The…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-01-01 Grant Backlund , James P. Hobert , Yeun Ji Jung , Kshitij Khare

We present a modified Gibbs sampler for general state spaces. We establish that this modification can lead to substantial gains in statistical efficiency while maintaining the overall quality of convergence. We illustrate our results in two…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-08-28 Alicia A. Johnson , James M. Flegal
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