相关论文: Finding Islands of Predictability in Action Foreca…

We discuss the utility of applying clustering as a preprocessing step for identifying subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of opportunity of coastal sea level using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Clustering leverages potential…

In many real-world continuous action domains, human agents must decide which actions to attempt and then execute those actions to the best of their ability. However, humans cannot execute actions without error. Human performance in these…

The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

Set prediction is about learning to predict a collection of unordered variables with unknown interrelations. Training such models with set losses imposes the structure of a metric space over sets. We focus on stochastic and underdefined…

This paper proposes an algorithm for motion planning among dynamic agents using adaptive conformal prediction. We consider a deterministic control system and use trajectory predictors to predict the dynamic agents' future motion, which is…

From just a glance, humans can make rich predictions about the future state of a wide range of physical systems. On the other hand, modern approaches from engineering, robotics, and graphics are often restricted to narrow domains and…

With advances in data-driven machine learning research, a wide variety of prediction models have been proposed to capture spatio-temporal features for the analysis of video streams. Recognising actions and detecting action transitions…

For robots to be a part of our daily life, they need to be able to navigate among crowds not only safely but also in a socially compliant fashion. This is a challenging problem because humans tend to navigate by implicitly cooperating with…

We propose a novel neural memory network based framework for future action sequence forecasting. This is a challenging task where we have to consider short-term, within sequence relationships as well as relationships in between sequences,…

Deciding how to act in partially observable environments remains an active area of research. Identifying good sequences of decisions is particularly challenging when good control performance requires planning multiple steps into the future…

Temporal prediction is inherently uncertain, but representing the ambiguity in natural image sequences is a challenging high-dimensional probabilistic inference problem. For natural scenes, the curse of dimensionality renders explicit…

In this paper, we address the problem of short-term action anticipation, i.e., we want to predict an upcoming action one second before it happens. We propose to harness high-level intent information to anticipate actions that will take…

Though action recognition in videos has achieved great success recently, it remains a challenging task due to the massive computational cost. Designing lightweight networks is a possible solution, but it may degrade the recognition…

Conditional diffusion models provide a natural framework for probabilistic prediction of dynamical systems and have been successfully applied to fluid dynamics and weather prediction. However, in many settings, the available information at…

We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate…

Intensifying climate change will lead to more extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall and drought. Accurate stream flow prediction models which are adaptable and robust to new circumstances in a changing climate will be an…

Detecting when a neural sequence model does "interesting" computation is an open problem. The next token prediction loss is a poor indicator: Low loss can stem from trivially predictable sequences that are uninteresting, while high loss may…

In order to solve complex, long-horizon tasks, intelligent robots need to carry out high-level, abstract planning and reasoning in conjunction with motion planning. However, abstract models are typically lossy and plans or policies computed…

Recent deep learning methods for vessel trajectory prediction are able to learn complex maritime patterns from historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and accurately predict sequences of future vessel positions with a…