相关论文: 21st Century Global and Regional Surface Temperatu…

New results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and multiple global reanalysis datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the mean and standard deviation in the surface air temperature. A…

We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2…

There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…

Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…

The strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient observed in the tropical Pacific in recent decades is a regional climate change signal that may be outside the range of historical simulations with comprehensive climate…

Climate change is a non-uniform phenomenon. This paper proposes a new quantitative methodology to characterize, measure, and test the existence of climate change heterogeneity. It consists of three steps. First, we introduce a new testable…

In this paper, we step back from a variety of competing heat wave definitions and forecast directly unusually high temperatures. Our testbed is the Russian Far East in the summers of 2022 and 2023. Remotely sensed data from NASA's Aqua…

Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are also robust results of coupled general circulation models. In spite of this success model-to-model variability…

Rapid changes and increasing climatic variability across the widely varied Koppen-Geiger regions of northern Europe generate significant needs for adaptation. Regional planning needs high-resolution projected temperatures. This work…

Future changes in the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) due to climate change are of high interest since they could substantially alter precipitation patterns in the tropics and subtropics. Although models predict a…

System identification method (SIM) was used to evaluate the Earth equilibrium climate sensitivity. According to our simulations, the equilibrium climate sensitivity was found to be between 2 deg C and 7 deg C. Analysis of the changes in…

Numerical model forecasts of near-surface temperatures are prone to error. This is because terrain can exert a strong influence on temperature that is not captured in numerical weather models due to spatial resolution limitations. To…

We propose a new statistical reduced complexity climate model. The centerpiece of the model consists of a set of physical equations for the global climate system which we show how to cast in non-linear state space form. The parameters in…

A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…

Understanding and mapping extreme heat is critical for risk management and public health planning, particularly in regions with complex terrain and heterogeneous climate. We present a case study of extreme heat in the Four Corners region of…

Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…

With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…

This is the second part of a series of two articles focused on the development and evaluation of the ARP-GEM1 global atmosphere model. The first paper introduced the model's new physics and speedup improvements. In this second part, we…

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…

Global and regional annual mean temperature data have been analysed by many groups to determine the linear trends of temperature over climatological time scales. The near consistent results generally show an increase of about 0.07 {\deg}C…