相关论文: Accounting for Seasonality in Extreme Sea Level Es…

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

Appropriate modelling of extreme skew surges is crucial, particularly for coastal risk management. Our study focuses on modelling extreme skew surges along the French Atlantic coast, with a particular emphasis on investigating the extremal…

Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…

Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…

Studies agree on a significant global mean sea level rise in the 20th century and its recent 21st century acceleration in the satellite record. At regional scale, the evolution of sea level probability distributions is often assumed to be…

Non-stationary time series modelling is applied to long tidal records from Esbjerg, Denmark, and coupled to climate change projections for sea-level and storminess, to produce projections of likely future sea-level maxima. The model has…

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods are…

Sea-level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage…

We investigate the influence of time-varying meteoceanic conditions on coastal flooding under the prism of rare events. Focusing on conditions observed over half tidal cycles, we observe that such data fall within the framework of…

We perform a statistical analysis of measured time series of sea levels at various coastal locations in the UK, measured at time differences of 15 minutes over the past 20 years. When the astronomical tide and other deterministic components…

Most climate trend studies analyze long-term trends as a proxy for climate dynamics. However, when examining seasonal data, it is unrealistic to assume that long-term trends remain consistent across all seasons. Instead, each season likely…

Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and…

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…

Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two…

We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the…

The ocean wave distribution in a specific region of space and time is described by its sea state. Knowledge about the sea states a ship encounters on a journey can be used to assess various parameters of risk and wear associated with the…

Sea-levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and…

Panel data arise in a wide range of application areas, and developing modelling methods for extreme values under such a setup is essential for reliable risk assessment and management. When choosing to model the marginal distributions of…

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…