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Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are used to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-08-27 Rohitash Chandra , Joshua Simmons

flowMC is a Python library for accelerated Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) leveraging deep generative modeling. It is built on top of the machine learning libraries JAX and Flax. At its core, flowMC uses a local sampler and a learnable…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2022-11-14 Kaze W. K. Wong , Marylou Gabrié , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

Cosmic-ray observatories necessarily rely on Monte Carlo simulations for their design, calibration and analysis of their data. Detailed simulations are very demanding computationally. We present a python-based package called ShowerModel to…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2021-03-02 Daniel Morcuende , Jaime Rosado

We describe a novel approach to accelerating Monte Carlo Markov Chains. Our focus is cosmological parameter estimation, but the algorithm is applicable to any problem for which the likelihood surface is a smooth function of the free…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2015-05-20 Adam Bouland , Richard Easther , Katherine Rosenfeld

Inverse problems defined on the sphere arise in many fields, including seismology and cosmology where problems are defined on the globe and the cosmic sphere. These are generally high-dimensional and computationally very complex and, as a…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2023-01-05 Augustin Marignier , Jason D. McEwen , Ana M. G. Ferreira , Thomas D. Kitching

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-04 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

Current and upcoming cosmological experiments open a new era of precision cosmology, thus demanding accurate theoretical predictions for cosmological observables. Because of the complexity of the codes delivering such predictions, reaching…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2020-05-05 F. Tarsitano , U. Schmitt , A. Refregier , J. Fluri , R. Sgier , A. Nicola , J. Herbel , A. Amara , T. Kacprzak , L. Heisenberg

We present a novel Bayesian inference tool that uses a neural network to parameterise efficient Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) proposals. The target distribution is first transformed into a diagonal, unit variance Gaussian by a series of…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2020-06-03 Adam Moss

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-03-02 Borislav Ikonomov , Michael U. Gutmann

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2021-07-21 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira , Javier López-Santiago , Gustau Camps-Valls

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient and effective means of sampling posterior distributions on Euclidean space, which has been extended to manifolds with boundary. However, some applications require an extension to more general…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2017-06-26 Vu Dinh , Arman Bilge , Cheng Zhang , Frederick A. Matsen

CosmoMC is a Cosmological Monte Carlo package that explores parameter space, finds the best-fit values, and makes contour plots for various observational data. The present manual assists you with the installation steps and running of…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2020-03-18 Hossein Moshafi , Majid Bahraminasr

Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) is now a popular method for performing Bayesian statistical inference on challenging state space models (SSMs) with unknown static parameters. It uses a particle filter (PF) at each iteration of an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-08-19 Christopher Drovandi , Richard G Everitt , Andrew Golightly , Dennis Prangle

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

统计计算 · 统计学 2012-01-19 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Reliable extraction of cosmological information from clustering measurements of galaxy surveys requires estimation of the error covariance matrices of observables. The accuracy of covariance matrices is limited by our ability to generate…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2017-08-29 Mohammadjavad Vakili , Francisco-Shu Kitaura , Yu Feng , Gustavo Yepes , Cheng Zhao , Chia-Hsun Chuang , ChangHoon Hahn

In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-10-30 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a class of Bayesian inference algorithms that targets for problems with intractable or {unavailable} likelihood function. It uses synthetic data drawn from the simulation model to approximate the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-12-24 Xuefei Cao , Shijia Wang , Yongdao Zhou

We introduce zeus, a well-tested Python implementation of the Ensemble Slice Sampling (ESS) method for Bayesian parameter inference. ESS is a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm specifically designed to tackle the computational…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2021-10-05 Minas Karamanis , Florian Beutler , John A. Peacock

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…