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We extend conformal inference to general settings that allow for time series data. Our proposal is developed as a randomization method and accounts for potential serial dependence by including block structures in the permutation scheme. As…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-07-09 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wuthrich , Yinchu Zhu

The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-04-17 Niharika Gauraha , Ola Spjuth

Conformal prediction is a method of producing prediction sets that can be applied on top of a wide range of prediction algorithms. The method has a guaranteed coverage probability under the standard IID assumption regardless of whether the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2014-04-09 Evgeny Burnaev , Vladimir Vovk

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Conformal Inference (CI) is a popular approach for generating finite sample prediction intervals based on the output of any point prediction method when data are exchangeable. Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) algorithms extend CI to the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-12-04 Herbert Susmann , Antoine Chambaz , Julie Josse

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conformal prediction framework to hierarchical classification,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-13 Thomas Mortier , Alireza Javanmardi , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

Conformal inference is a method that provides prediction sets for machine learning models, operating independently of the underlying distributional assumptions and relying solely on the exchangeability of training and test data. Despite its…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-01 Daniela Corbetta , Livio Finos , Ludwig Geistlinger , Davide Risso

Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-02-19 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Paolo Toccaceli , Alex Gammerman

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

We develop methods for forming prediction sets in an online setting where the data generating distribution is allowed to vary over time in an unknown fashion. Our framework builds on ideas from conformal inference to provide a general…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-10 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Typically, machine learning models are trained and evaluated without making any distinction between users (e.g, using traditional hold-out and cross-validation). However, this produces inaccurate performance metrics estimates in multi-user…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-11 Enrique Garcia-Ceja , Luciano Garcia-Banuelos , Nicolas Jourdan

Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-27 Nina Deliu , Brunero Liseo

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Federated learning has attracted considerable interest for collaborative machine learning in healthcare to leverage separate institutional datasets while maintaining patient privacy. However, additional challenges such as poor calibration…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-19 Charles Lu , Jayasheree Kalpathy-Cramer

Conformal prediction is widely adopted in uncertainty quantification, due to its post-hoc, distribution-free, and model-agnostic properties. In the realm of modern deep learning, researchers have proposed Feature Conformal Prediction (FCP),…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-03 Zihao Tang , Boyuan Wang , Chuan Wen , Jiaye Teng

Time series forecasting is critical for many applications, where deep learning-based point prediction models have demonstrated strong performance. However, in practical scenarios, there is also a need to quantify predictive uncertainty…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-14 Xiannan Huang , Shuhan Qiu

Function plays an important role in mathematics and many science branches. As the fast development of computer technology, more and more study on computational function analysis, e.g., Fast Fourier Transform, Wavelet Transform, Curve…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-09-21 Changlin Wan , Zhongzhi Shi