相关论文: fETSmcs: Feature-based ETS model component selecti…

We present a detailed description of our submission for the M4 forecasting competition, in which it ranked 3rd overall. Our solution utilizes several commonly used statistical models, which are weighted according to their performance on…

Despite the superiority of convolutional neural networks demonstrated in time series modeling and forecasting, it has not been fully explored on the design of the neural network architecture and the tuning of the hyper-parameters. Inspired…

Deep learning has significantly advanced automatic medical diagnostics and released the occupation of human resources to reduce clinical pressure, yet the persistent challenge of data scarcity in this area hampers its further improvements…

Most current multivariate time series (MTS) classification algorithms focus on improving the predictive accuracy. However, for large-scale (either high-dimensional or long-sequential) time series (TS) datasets, there is an additional…

Techniques of hybridisation and ensemble learning are popular model fusion techniques for improving the predictive power of forecasting methods. With limited research that instigates combining these two promising approaches, this paper…

Accurate forecasts of macroeconomic and financial data, such as GDP, CPI, unemployment rates, and stock indices, are crucial for the success of countries, businesses, and investors, resulting in a constant demand for reliable forecasting…

One of the key challenges when developing a predictive model is the capability to describe the domain knowledge and the cause-effect relationships in a simple way. Decision rules are a useful and important methodology in this context,…

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the primary tools for investigating future Earth system states at time scales from decades to centuries, especially in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. State-of-the-art ESMs can reproduce the…

Hybrid methods have been shown to outperform pure statistical and pure deep learning methods at forecasting tasks and quantifying the associated uncertainty with those forecasts (prediction intervals). One example is Exponential Smoothing…

While Current TTS systems perform well in synthesizing high-quality speech, producing highly expressive speech remains a challenge. Emphasis, as a critical factor in determining the expressiveness of speech, has attracted more attention…

Sample selection improves the efficiency and effectiveness of machine learning models by providing informative and representative samples. Typically, samples can be modeled as a sample graph, where nodes are samples and edges represent…

Machine learning (ML) models deployed in healthcare systems must face data drawn from continually evolving environments. However, researchers proposing such models typically evaluate them in a time-agnostic manner, splitting datasets…

Time-series prediction involves forecasting future values using machine learning models. Feature engineering, whereby existing features are transformed to make new ones, is critical for enhancing model performance, but is often manual and…

When considering a model selection or, more generally, an aggregation approach for adaptive statistical inference, it is often necessary to compute estimators over a wide range of model complexities including unnecessarily large models even…

Self-supervised representation learning, particularly through contrastive methods like TS2Vec, has advanced the analysis of time series data. However, these models often falter in forecasting tasks because their objective functions…

Fitts' law is often employed as a predictive model for human movement, especially in the field of human-computer interaction. Models with an assumed Gaussian error structure are usually adequate when applied to data collected from…

Forecasting complex time series is an important yet challenging problem that involves various industrial applications. Recently, masked time-series modeling has been proposed to effectively model temporal dependencies for forecasting by…

Feature Selection (FS) is crucial for improving model interpretability, reducing complexity, and sometimes for enhancing accuracy. The recently introduced Tsetlin machine (TM) offers interpretable clause-based learning, but lacks…

Classical model selection seeks to find a single model within a particular class that optimizes some pre-specified criteria, such as maximizing a likelihood or minimizing a risk. More recently, there has been an increased interest in model…

Performing Bayesian inference for the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model of earthquakes typically requires MCMC sampling using the likelihood function or estimating the latent branching structure. These tasks have computational…