相关论文: How is model-related uncertainty quantified and re…

We propose a framework for the assessment of uncertainty quantification in deep regression. The framework is based on regression problems where the regression function is a linear combination of nonlinear functions. Basically, any level of…

Many data mining approaches aim at modelling and predicting human behaviour. An important quantity of interest is the quality of model-based predictions, e.g. for finding a competition winner with best prediction performance. In real life,…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge. With increased usage of deep learning in various applications, the need for efficient UQ methods that can…

As a main field of artificial intelligence, natural language processing (NLP) has achieved remarkable success via deep neural networks. Plenty of NLP tasks have been addressed in a unified manner, with various tasks being associated with…

Risk assessment under different possible scenarios is a source of uncertainty that may lead to concerning financial losses. We address this issue, first, by adapting a robust framework to the class of spectral risk measures. Second, we…

In scientific applications, there often are several competing models that could be fit to the observed data, so quantification of the model uncertainty is of fundamental importance. In this paper, we develop an inferential model (IM)…

In principle, deep learning models trained on medical time-series, including wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) sensor data, can provide a means to continuously monitor physiological parameters outside of clinical settings. However, there…

Deep Learning sets the state-of-the-art in many challenging tasks showing outstanding performance in a broad range of applications. Despite its success, it still lacks robustness hindering its adoption in medical applications. Modeling…

This guide offers suggestions/insights on uncertainty quantification of nuclear structure models. We discuss a simple approach to statistical error estimates, strategies to assess systematic errors, and show how to uncover…

Scientists need to compare the support for models based on observed phenomena. The main goal of the evidential paradigm is to quantify the strength of evidence in the data for a reference model relative to an alternative model. This is done…

The assessment of the reliability of Monte Carlo simulations is discussed, with emphasis on uncertainty quantification and the related impact on experimental results. Methods and techniques to account for epistemic uncertainties, i.e. for…

High-quality estimates of uncertainty and robustness are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning which underlies many deployed ML systems. The ability to compare techniques for improving these estimates is…

Stochastic simulation is widely used to study complex systems composed of various interconnected subprocesses, such as input processes, routing and control logic, optimization routines, and data-driven decision modules. In practice, these…

Non-probabilistic convex model utilizes a convex set to quantify the uncertainty domain of uncertain-but-bounded parameters, which is very effective for structural uncertainty analysis with limited or poor-quality experimental data. To…

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities, enabling concise, context-aware answers in question answering (QA) tasks. The lack of transparency in complex LLMs has inspired extensive research aimed at developing methods to…

Despite the increasing demand for safer machine learning practices, the use of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods in production remains limited. This limitation is exacerbated by the challenge of validating UQ methods in absence of UQ…

This paper provides a tutorial about uncertainty quantification (UQ) for those who have no background but are interested in learning more in this area. It exploits many very simple examples, which are understandable to undergraduates, to…

Statistics experiences a storm around the perceived misuse and possible abuse of its methods in the context of the so-called reproducibility crisis. The methods and styles of quantification practiced in mathematical modelling rarely make it…

Due to their intuitive appeal, Bayesian methods of modeling and uncertainty quantification have become popular in modern machine and deep learning. When providing a prior distribution over the parameter space, it is straightforward to…

Over the past decades, researchers and ML practitioners have come up with better and better ways to build, understand and improve the quality of ML models, but mostly under the key assumption that the training data is distributed…