相关论文: Is your model predicting the past?

Complex statistical machine learning models are increasingly being used or considered for use in high-stakes decision-making pipelines in domains such as financial services, health care, criminal justice and human services. These models are…

Process mining enables the reconstruction and evaluation of business processes based on digital traces in IT systems. An increasingly important technique in this context is process prediction. Given a sequence of events of an ongoing trace,…

Many deployed learned models are black boxes: given input, returns output. Internal information about the model, such as the architecture, optimisation procedure, or training data, is not disclosed explicitly as it might contain proprietary…

Machine learning algorithms can now outperform classic economic models in predicting quantities ranging from bargaining outcomes, to choice under uncertainty, to an individual's future jobs and wages. Yet this predictive accuracy comes at a…

Data scientists and statisticians are often at odds when determining the best approach, machine learning or statistical modeling, to solve an analytics challenge. However, machine learning and statistical modeling are more cousins than…

A prediction makes a claim about a system's future given knowledge of its past. A retrodiction makes a claim about its past given knowledge of its future. The bidirectional machine is an ambidextrous hidden Markov chain that does both…

Machine learning predictions are typically interpreted as the sum of contributions of predictors. Yet, each out-of-sample prediction can also be expressed as a linear combination of in-sample values of the predicted variable, with weights…

This graduate textbook on machine learning tells a story of how patterns in data support predictions and consequential actions. Starting with the foundations of decision making, we cover representation, optimization, and generalization as…

Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made…

We propose and show the efficacy of a new method to address generic inverse problems. Inverse modeling is the task whereby one seeks to determine the control parameters of a natural system that produce a given set of observed measurements.…

Machine learning systems are often trained using data collected from historical decisions. If past decisions were biased, then automated systems that learn from historical data will also be biased. We propose a black-box approach to…

Pre-validation is a way to build prediction model with two datasets of significantly different feature dimensions. Previous work showed that the asymptotic distribution of the resulting test statistic for the pre-validated predictor…

Backward simulation is an approximate inference technique for Bayesian belief networks. It differs from existing simulation methods in that it starts simulation from the known evidence and works backward (i.e., contrary to the direction of…

The usage of machine learning methods in traditional surveys including official statistics, is still very limited. Therefore, we propose a predictor supported by these algorithms, which can be used to predict any population or subpopulation…

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

Process analytics is an umbrella of data-driven techniques which includes making predictions for individual process instances or overall process models. At the instance level, various novel techniques have been recently devised, tackling…

To predict the next token, autoregressive models ordinarily examine the past. Could they also benefit from also examining hypothetical futures? We consider a novel Transformer-based autoregressive architecture that estimates the next-token…

In recent years, the use of sophisticated statistical models that influence decisions in domains of high societal relevance is on the rise. Although these models can often bring substantial improvements in the accuracy and efficiency of…

Social contexts -- such as families, schools, and neighborhoods -- shape life outcomes. The key question is not simply whether they matter, but rather for whom and under what conditions. Here, we argue that prediction gaps -- differences in…

Time series forecasts are widely used to inform decisions. Human decision-makers interpret these forecasts, incorporate prior experience and uncertainty about future outcomes, and then make a decision. In this paper, we propose a new…