相关论文: Flexible Modeling of Multivariate Spatial Extremes

We propose a multivariate generative model to capture the complex dependence structure often encountered in business and financial data. Our model features heterogeneous and asymmetric tail dependence between all pairs of individual…

The risk of occurrence of atypical phenomena is a cross-cutting concern in several areas, such as engineering, climatology, finance, actuarial, among others. Extreme value theory is the natural tool to approach this theme. Many of these…

Various data modalities are common in real-world applications (e.g., electronic health records, medical images and clinical notes in healthcare). It is essential to develop multimodal learning methods to aggregate various information from…

The max-stable process is an asymptotically justified model for spatial extremes. In particular, we focus on the hierarchical extreme-value process (HEVP), which is a particular max-stable process that is conducive to Bayesian computing.…

Spatial models for areal data are often constructed such that all pairs of adjacent regions are assumed to have near-identical spatial autocorrelation. In practice, data can exhibit dependence structures more complicated than can be…

In order to capture the dependence in the upper tail of a time series, we develop non-negative regularly-varying time series models that are constructed similarly to classical non-extreme ARMA models. Rather than fully characterizing tail…

Estimating the probability of extreme events involving multiple risk factors is a critical challenge in fields such as finance and climate science. This paper proposes a semi-parametric approach to estimate the probability that a…

In this article, we develop fully Bayesian, copula-based, spatial-statistical models for large, noisy, incomplete, and non-Gaussian spatial data. Our approach includes novel constructions of copulas that accommodate a spatial-random-effects…

Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

The conditional extremes (CE) framework has proven useful for analysing the joint tail behaviour of random vectors. However, when applied across many locations or variables, it can be difficult to interpret or compare the resulting extremal…

Extreme events are often multivariate in nature. A compound extreme occurs when a combination of variables jointly produces a significant impact, even if individual components are not necessarily marginally extreme. Compound extremes have…

We propose a new modeling framework for highly-multivariate spatial processes that synthesizes ideas from recent multiscale and spectral approaches with graphical models. The basis graphical lasso writes a univariate Gaussian process as a…

Learning the joint dependence of discrete variables is a fundamental problem in machine learning, with many applications including prediction, clustering and dimensionality reduction. More recently, the framework of copula modeling has…

In multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting, many deep learning based methods have been proposed for modeling dependencies at multiple spatial (inter-variate) or temporal (intra-variate) scales. However, existing methods may fail to model…

In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If…

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

Inferring the parameters of models describing biological systems is an important problem in the reverse engineering of the mechanisms underlying these systems. Much work has focused on parameter inference of stochastic and ordinary…

Stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems can undergo rapid transitions relative to the change in their forcing, for example due to the occurrence of multiple equilibrium solutions for a specific interval of parameters. In this paper, we…

Statistical analysis of max-stable processes used to model spatial extremes has been limited by the difficulty in calculating the joint likelihood function. This precludes all standard likelihood-based approaches, including Bayesian…