相关论文: Cold Posteriors through PAC-Bayes

Many crucial problems in deep learning and statistical inference are caused by a variational gap, i.e., a difference between model evidence (log-likelihood) and evidence lower bound (ELBO). In particular, in a classical VAE setting that…

A reciprocal LASSO (rLASSO) regularization employs a decreasing penalty function as opposed to conventional penalization approaches that use increasing penalties on the coefficients, leading to stronger parsimony and superior model…

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework for inference in spatio-temporal Hawkes processes, extending existing theoretical results beyond the purely temporal setting. Our framework encompasses modelling both the background and…

Generalization bounds which assess the difference between the true risk and the empirical risk, have been studied extensively. However, to obtain bounds, current techniques use strict assumptions such as a uniformly bounded or a Lipschitz…

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian…

Predicting outcomes in external domains is challenging due to hidden confounders that potentially influence both predictors and outcomes. Well-established methods frequently rely on stringent assumptions, explicit knowledge about the…

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

Bayesian neural networks that incorporate data augmentation implicitly use a ``randomly perturbed log-likelihood [which] does not have a clean interpretation as a valid likelihood function'' (Izmailov et al. 2021). Here, we provide several…

Although Bayesian methods are robust and principled, their application in practice could be limited since they typically rely on computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for their implementation. One possible solution…

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…

We propose a general framework for obtaining probabilistic solutions to PDE-based inverse problems. Bayesian methods are attractive for uncertainty quantification but assume knowledge of the likelihood model or data generation process. This…

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model…

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

The predict-then-optimize paradigm bridges online learning and contextual optimization in dynamic environments. Previous works have investigated the sequential updating of predictors using feedback from downstream decisions to minimize…

Uncertainty in the prediction of future weather is commonly assessed through the use of forecast ensembles that employ a numerical weather prediction model in distinct variants. Statistical postprocessing can correct for biases in the…

We use a formal correspondence between thermodynamics and inference, where the number of samples can be thought of as the inverse temperature, to study a quantity called ``learning capacity'' which is a measure of the effective…

Pac-Bayes bounds are among the most accurate generalization bounds for classifiers learned from independently and identically distributed (IID) data, and it is particularly so for margin classifiers: there have been recent contributions…

In this paper, we establish generalization bounds for transductive learning algorithms in the context of information theory and PAC-Bayes, covering both the random sampling and the random splitting setting. First, we show that the…

In this position paper, we argue that many post-mortem generalization measures -- those computed on trained networks -- are \textbf{fragile}: small training modifications that barely affect the performance of the underlying deep neural…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To…